2025-2026年泰柬冲突中中美介入调解效果差异的原因

… Its responsibility was to take care of various issues pertaining to the Thai–Cambodian border in general through consultation and negotiation including the reduction of tension, which …

This study examines the relevance of the ASEAN Way in managing the Thailand–Cambodia border conflict through the lens of Structuration Theory and McPhee and Zaug’s Four Flows Model. Using a qualitative case study design, data were collected from document analysis and an in-depth interview with an ASEAN diplomat. Thematic analysis was employed to identify communication patterns that shape interactions among member states. The findings show that the ASEAN Way is reproduced through four communicative flows (membership negotiation, self-structuring, activity coordination, and institutional positioning), which collectively form ASEAN’s diplomatic and social structure. The Thailand–Cambodia conflict demonstrates that consensus, non-interference, and informal communication networks remain central to ASEAN’s mediation approach, even though formal mechanisms like the ASEAN High Council were not activated. The study concludes that the ASEAN Way remains relevant but requires institutional learning and the development of more responsive conflict-management mechanisms.

… the historical roots of the Cambodia-Thailand border conflict and the events … Cambodia-Thailand border clashes illustrate both the potential and limits of ASEAN-led conflict management…

… on the disputes along the Thai-Cambodian border that emphasized conflict de-escalation and the problems inherent in dealing with poorly defined borders. Previous works on this …

… Cambodia-Thailand border dispute from a Cambodian perspective. First, it analyzes the reasons behind the conflict's … Moving forward, there are four conflict resolution mechanisms …

… of the dispute between Thailand and Cambodia at the Preah Vihear temple and, secondly, what is the impact of the dispute … to take on the role of mediator and provide conflict resolution. …

In 1962, the International Court of Justice ruled that the Preah Vihear temple lies within Cambodian territory. The status of the 4.6 km2 of land surrounding the temple, however, remained unclear. When UNESCO declared the Preah Vihear temple a Cambodian World Heritage Site in July 2008, the situation was exacerbated. Several firefights between October 2008 and April/May 2011 claimed at least 34 lives. The border dispute became a rollercoaster ride along the way: Talks between Thailand and Cambodia were regularly interrupted by exchanges of fire, only to be resumed a little later. This prevented a resolution of the conflict. The essay explores how Thailand's and Cambodia's conflict behaviour can be explained from a first-image perspective. In doing so, uncovering the motives of both countries’ prime ministers is crucial to understanding Bangkok's and Phnom Penh's actions in the border area. The paper argues that in low-intensity border conflicts, motivations are different from those underlying heads of government's behaviour in high-intensity border conflicts. While this complicates an agreement on the Preah Vihear question, it also means that escalation to a manifest border war is very unlikely.

… borders disputes between Vietnam and Laos, Vietnam and Cambodia, and Cambodia and Thai… that it is domestic political issues that make the resolution of land border disputes difficult. …

Abstract China pursues geo-economic interests of trade, investment and energy, while the US explores geo-political interests of maintaining regional leadership, launching anti-terrorism campaigns, and defending allies in the Middle East. Notwithstanding all this, the two sides share compatible and complementary interests in the Middle East security governance and conflict de-escalation, which forges structural dynamics for Beijing and Washington to seek common ground while shelving differences. By drawing on detailed analysis of China and the US’s interaction in three cases, including coping with the ISIS threat, addressing the Iran nuclear crisis and mediating the Israel-Palestine conflict, this article argues that driven by pragmatism, it is possible for China and the US to build a complementary partnership in the Middle East, especially in dealing with security challenges in conflict zones, to maximise their respective interests and to alleviate the impact of Sino-US geopolitical rivalry in the Asia-Pacific region. The compatible policy orientations, the intensifying Middle East Cold War in the aftermath of the Arab Spring, and the interdependent nature of Sino-US interests in the Middle East make it vital for China and the US to build a complementary partnership, although they may face various hurdles in its implementation.

Mediation caucusing — that is, separate meetings conducted by the mediator with some, but not all, of the parties — is widely used, but it has become increasingly controversial, as some mediators advocate for a no-caucus form of mediation using only joint sessions with all parties present. The rationale for the no-caucus model is that caucuses give the mediator too much power at the expense of the parties, and joint sessions improve the parties' understanding of each other's views. But caucusing adds value to mediation in several ways. First, from the standpoint of economic theory, caucusing provides mediators with an important tool for overcoming two impediments to settlement — the “prisoner's dilemma” (caused by the parties' fear of mutual exploitation) and “adverse selection” (caused by the failure to disclose information). Second, caucusing can help the mediator overcome a variety of negotiation problems, such as communication barriers, unrealistic expectations, emotional barriers, intraparty conflict, and fear of losing face. Third, caucusing provides a more private setting in which the mediator can develop a deeper and more personal understanding of the parties' needs and interests. Although the no-caucus model may be appropriate for certain types of mediation (particularly those cases in which the parties will have an ongoing relationship), some parties may prefer the efficiency that can be achieved with caucusing, even if that means sacrificing certain other values — such as greater understanding — or giving the mediator more information than the parties have, thus creating the risk of manipulation by the mediator. Moreover, the choice is not binary — numerous variations and hybrid formats can be useful, such as sessions in which the mediator meets with only the parties' lawyers or with only the parties. Choosing the best format for a mediation is more of an art than a science, and mediators should consider, with the parties, whether the parties' objectives would be best served using only joint sessions, extensive caucusing, or a combination of these approaches.

… However, Indonesia attempted to conduct shuttle diplomacy between the two sides … a ceasefire, ASEAN still played a fairly limited role in the PD process in this instance as the ceasefire …

… When the Egyptian and Israeli armies became locked in a mutual encirclement, a cease-fire became effective, direct negotiations for the conditions of the cease-fire at kilometer 1 0 1 of …

The study proposes practical approaches to improving diplomatic mechanisms in the modern system of international relations. The main focus is placed on the impact of armed conflicts on the transformation of negotiation formats. Special attention is given to the interaction between classical diplomacy and informal, humanitarian, and digital channels of de-escalation. The comparative method makes it possible to compare the effectiveness of negotiation models in interstate and local confrontations. The systemic approach reveals coordination mechanisms among states, international organizations, and neutral mediators. Structural and functional analysis clarifies the roles of official and unofficial communication channels. Content analysis was applied to international reports, strategic documents, and scientific publications. The empirical basis covers contemporary armed conflicts in different regions of the world. The results confirm a gradual departure from the exclusive use of intergovernmental negotiations. The highest effectiveness is demonstrated by combined models. They integrate official negotiations, expert consultations, shuttle diplomacy, humanitarian initiatives, and digital platforms. The analysis confirms that the growing influence of regional associations and middle powers opens new prospects for mediation activities. Global institutions often face political constraints. Regional actors usually demonstrate higher adaptability. Their decisions are implemented more rapidly. They are able to maintain a stable level of trust among conflicting parties. The main limitation of the existing system remains the time gap between the speed of escalation and the slowness of diplomatic response. Sanctions pressure becomes stronger when interstate coordination is ensured and aligned with clear negotiation signals. The proposed approaches may be used by international organizations and governmental institutions. They provide opportunities for creating early response mechanisms and designing multilevel peace formats. The scientific novelty lies in the development of a model for diplomatic modernization. It integrates preventive platforms, hybrid negotiation architectures, and a rapid response system for conflicts of a new type.

The authors study the conflict mediation problem, sometimes called “shuttle diplomacy,” when the mediator acts as a go-between and must gather information from the disputants. In the context of a general model of information mediation, they show that the incentive that disputants have to lie to the mediator undoes any advantage that might be gained by adding communication with a third party. In fact, the main result shows that any equilibrium outcome that is achievable through mediation is also achievable as an equilibrium outcome of a game with unmediated preplay communication. This is true even when the mediator is allowed to have arbitrary preferences or biases. The authors then test their empirical prediction on dispute management efforts between 1937 and 1985. The analysis supports the hypothesis that information mediation has no effect in environments where the mediator has no independent source of information.

Although agents employ a wide range of conflict management techniques in practice, scholars have evaluated only a few of these. A more complete empirical analysis of the spectrum of third-party procedures used to manage international crises reveals that two techniques in particular are most effective: mediation efforts and third-party activities to open or maintain lines of communication. The endpoints of preventing escalation and promoting peaceful settlement take into account the notion of conflict as a dynamic evolutionary process, consisting of several phases, which in turn affect the outcome of third-party management. Crisis management methods that have proved successful in a bipolar world may be similarly successful in the post-cold war environment, an issue future work must address.

… third-party consultation interventions by exploring trust and other variables that facilitate intractable conflict resolution, … improved outcomes related to their performance and ability to work …

… and effective conflict resolution than would otherwise occur; (b) traditional third-party intervention … procedures, then process, and then passive, where effectiveness was measured by the …

… The study reported here discusses the basic structure of third party intervention, and … third party intervention upon the amount of communication, and the amount of conflict resolution (the …

… third-party interventions into intrastate conflicts since 1944 to assess historical patterns of intervention … At the same time, the efficiency of any third-party intervention should be increased …

… conflict and conflict resolution, this review identifies 44 major models in the area of conflict, negotiation, and third party processes (eg mediation … of optimal interface effectiveness, (b) the …

… Given our extensive experience with conflict, it is not surprising that the nature and effectiveness of … we redefined the conflict resolution methods in terms of amount of third- …

… resolution of social conflict. A statement of the major components of the method is followed by a review of studies involving intergroup conflict resolution … assuming that the efficacy of the …

… for understanding interventions, or a common list of conflict characteristics … conflict management persisted in the absence of systematic research on intervention style and effectiveness…

… other aspect of the secretary-general's role whose contribution to the peaceful settlement of disputes is not generally appreciated, in part because it grows out of the normal performance …

… Many questions remain about the effectiveness of efforts to manage or ameliorate the … whether third-party interventions tend to shorten or lengthen the duration of intrastate conflicts and …

… Taken in the context of third- party intervention, for the purposes of this chapter, there are a … the issue of effectiveness. For example, is the effectiveness of third- party intervention simply …

… states willing to offer territorial concessions to resolve their territorial disputes, while others … This book is about why territorial disputes become enduring, with a focus on dispute strategies…

… In this regard, a second framing question for the inchoate practice of strategic peacebuilding … forge solutions or end disputes—such as alternative dispute resolution practices—must take …

… in peacebuilding; critical analysis of the aid system’s role … peacebuilding/conflict; international peacemaking strategies; role of civil society in peacebuilding; evaluation in peacebuilding. …

… of government or a particular piece of territory. 10 Thus, … dispute occurred in the following year, it immediately escalated into a war (the war thus was fought over a piece of territory …

The literature has been divided as regards assessing the record of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) with respect to dealing with interstate disputes between and intrastate armed conflict within member states. Until the 2000s, ASEAN states in practice did not opt to take on a formal corporate role to manage and settle bilateral disputes between members and also did not seek such a role in relation to violent ethnic or other political conflict occurring within the boundaries of fellow members. This chapter explores whether since the adoption of the ASEAN Charter the grouping’s dispute and conflict management norms and practices have evolved. In this regard, the chapter reviews ASEAN’s stated consensus. It also examines how ASEAN addressed the 2008-2011 Thailand-Cambodia border conflict, and how ASEAN responded between February and October 2021 to the most recent military takeover and subsequent violence in Myanmar.

… something new for ASEAN in terms of conflict management. In … ASEAN conflict management framework. It had at least laid down the principle that disputes between and among ASEAN …

… Conflict Management and Dispute Settlement in East Asia 40 This study will put the conflict management dimension of ASEAN … the political and security context of ASEAN collaboration. …

In the end of 2015, ASEAN Community will be fully implemented in Southeast Asia. The community will bring ASEAN countries to the next stage of cooperation in order to bring prosperity to the region. However, several obstacles still have to be faced by ASEAN. Territorial dispute between Indonesia and Malaysia, Thailand and Cambodia concerning Preah Temple, Malaysia with The Phillipines over Sabah, etc are some of the problems. Other problems related to South China Sea, even involving five ASEAN members on dispute. Although it is clear that member of ASEAN countries agree to settle their problems according to ASEAN mechanism as the most respective organization in the region, on several occasions they prefer to take it bilaterally or bring it to the Hague. The assumption of non-interference principle as the organization conflict solving mechanism does not apply accordingly. As such, we have to find other ways. Peace can only be achieved through closer relations between ASEAN countries. Closer relation creates better understanding between people within those countries. If “high level” (G to G) conflict resolution does not work, we have to turn to the people. Closer relations among its people will be a “grass root’ power to force the government to end their dispute. This paper will examine how ASEAN Socio-Culture Community (ASCC), alongside CSO’s within them, will work in creating closer relations among ASEAN countries, in order to solve disputes in the region. Key words: ASEAN Community, ASEAN Socio-Culture Community, Dispute, Civil Society Organizations (CSO).

… the contribution of international mediation to the successful … can mediation do, and what do we mean by success in mediation… of mediation success and durability of mediated outcomes. …

Abstract This article argues that third-party mediators who simultaneously provide external military support to a conflict party possess unique leverage to pressure both sides into peace negotiations and agreements. By threatening to increase, reduce, or withdraw such support, coercive mediators can compel parties to enter talks and sign settlements. However, these agreements are often fragile. The article identifies two mechanisms behind this fragility: (1) settlements are often artificial and reliant on sustained third-party involvement, and (2) parties may sign agreements to avoid losing support but resist implementing difficult provisions later when implementation becomes politically or militarily costly. The article tests this theory using Peace Observatory data on 6,277 negotiation rounds in armed conflicts from 1989 to 2023. The findings show that coercive mediation significantly increases the likelihood of both the initiation of formal negotiations and the conclusion of peace agreements. However, agreements reached through coercive mediation are substantially less durable. Two case studies on Angola (1989–1991) further illustrate how coercive leverage enabled short-term breakthroughs but contributed to the rapid breakdown of imposed settlements. Coercive mediation is thus a double-edged sword: effective in the short term, destabilizing in the long run.

… processes, outcomes, implementation, and the durability of … our projects on stable and durable peace. We then develop … mediation resulting in a high equality outcome. The British …

… can use to limit or contain violence in the implementation phase. These tactics can be … measures is that the mediator remains active during the implementation phase. This requires an …

… investigating long-term mediation success and this article … the mediation literature with recent studies on the durability of … implementation of peace agreements, and thus durable peace, …

… of the settlement are implemented and conflict breaks … mediation is generally more costly than most other thirdparty resolution efforts, we can expect that the conflicts that merit mediation …

… mediators. Theoretically and statistically controlling for the negative effects of selection on agreement durability evinced through mediation … that regional mediators get especially hard-to-…

… mediators a way to establish realistic expectations about the durability of dispute settlements. … This may involve mediators getting involved in implementation procedures (eg, monitoring …

… Covenantal Diplomacy is a doctrinal model that integrates moral foresight with fiscal stewardship to optimize national decision-making not through coercion or transactional leverage, …

Abstract Signaling is a core element of international crisis bargaining and coercive diplomacy. To succeed in crises, a state must convey to its opponent that it possesses the capability to impose an advantageous outcome and that it is resolved to do so, while also managing the risks of unintended escalation and war. However, less studied in signaling literature is how states can use signals for the purposes of managing escalation risks or even de-escalating crises. In this article, we develop a theory of signaling in cyberspace. We argue that, although cyber operations are not particularly well suited as costly signals of resolve or capabilities in the context of coercive diplomacy, they have a distinct utility for signaling to manage escalation risks. We build a framework organized around the causal mechanisms of accommodative signaling in cyberspace and test it against a set of comparative case studies. We find that cyber operations can act as accommodative signaling under some conditions, particularly when decision makers are faced with managing tensions between simultaneously signaling to domestic audiences and adversary governments.

The analysis in this study covers how power imbalance, alliance cohesion, diplomatic and media framing, and big data analytics affect scaling up in the conflict in a multipolar world. This research applies the Constructivist International Relations Theory to examine survey data of 250 international relations experts, policymakers, and analysts using Survey Structured Equation Modeling (SEM) via SMART-PLS. Power imbalance and the way the media frames the situation are found to lead to an escalation of conflicts, but strong alliance cohesion, diplomatic effort, and big data analytics can mitigate the risk of the escalation. Strategic diplomacy, media regulation, and real-time data monitoring have thus shown their capacity to prevent conflict. These contribute to conflict studies by incorporating political IR models, data science knowledge, and policy advice on global security governance. This means they can support the prediction and prevention of conflicts by means of diplomatic transparency, ethical media practice, and AI early warning systems. This study is limited by the use of self-reported data; however, the results of this study indicate that this topic is under-explored in cultural and geopolitical terms. The results help inform policymakers and security entities on ways to address conflict resolution as a matter of discretion and from a multidimensional perspective. Survey Structured Equation Modeling (SEM) via SMART-PLS is a technique used for analyzing structural relationships between measured variables and latent constructs, providing valuable insights into complex models. Survey Structured Equation Modeling (SEM) via SMART-PLS is a technique used for analyzing structural relationships between measured variables and latent constructs, providing valuable insights into complex models.

… of de-escalation that occurs, used in four cases. Choosing the same strategy occurs infrequently (18% of cases), and only following diplomatic … just because they have leverage, but also …

… conflict-prone behaviour is crucial to the success of this strategy. However, diplomats need leverage … To build leverage, diplomatic efforts are often combined with other incentives. Some …

… The absence of credible diplomatic off ramps has allowed the conflict to intensify without clear pathways for de escalation. This breakdown of restraint reflects a broader shift towards …

ABSTRACT Interest in the impact of disasters on conflict risks is burgeoning. This is particularly the case for the Indo-Pacific region, which is highly vulnerable to disasters and experiences geopolitical competition as well as several armed conflicts. So far, the literature has predominantly focussed on the impact of disasters on higher conflict risks. We argue that considering the option that disasters can (temporarily) reduce conflict risks would benefit research, politics, and practice. To illustrate this argument, we focus on two possible mechanisms. First, disasters can catalyse short-term declines in armed conflict intensity by providing constraints to the conflict parties. This mechanism is supported by evidence from the civil wars in Kashmir (after the 2005 earthquake) and Bangladesh (after cyclone Sidr in 2007). Second, disasters provide opportunities for diplomacy between states, which can in turn reduce conflict risks, even though such diplomacy might suffer from a politicisation of disaster relief. Evidence from Australian disaster diplomacy after the 2018 Sulawesi earthquake (Indonesia) and the 2022 volcanic eruption in Tonga supports this mechanism. A more comprehensive, less conflict-focussed ontology would benefit further research on disasters and conflict.

… a stage for the protracted conflict with Cambodia, and PAD … into tangible armed clashes along the Thai-Cambodian border. … upon the UNSC and ASEAN to mediate the border conflict. …

… in transforming the conflicts. This study aims to increase the understanding of the role of mediation in transforming these conflicts, examine the effectiveness of mediation, gain insights …

Tension between Thailand and Cambodia that escalated into armed clashes in 2011 did more than threaten the credibility of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). The fighting over their disputed border, which claimed dozens of casualties and displaced tens of thousands of villagers, exposed a little-recognized weakness in Southeast Asia: countless border disputes and other land and maritime boundary issues that linger unresolved. While regional attention has focused on China’s provocations in support of expansive claims in the South China Sea, Southeast Asian governments have ignored many of their own border problems. Although these disputes are largely dormant, and there is no indication that they will flare into violence anytime soon, the Thai-Cambodian experience demonstrated the potential danger. In 2008, the two countries signed up to develop jointly the ancient, borderline Preah Vihear temple as a symbol of their “long-lasting friendship”, only to open fire on each other over the matter a few months later.2 Many of the latent disputes carry similar historical baggage and are susceptible to the kind of nationalist manipulation employed by conservative Thai political factions to whip up sentiments against Cambodia. Moreover, as with Preah Vihear, the core of almost all the disputes is sovereignty, which is emotionally charged and sensitive. The resort to arms over a long-standing territorial disagreement is further evidence that borders, far from becoming redundant as globalization advances

… more likely to act as mediators than they would have been in … swiftly and smoothly resolve their differences, because “good … so that it might be an effective forum for mitigating US-China …

In theYale Law School pastPaul Tsai China Center, The six years, the USAUnited States and ChinaChina have become embroiled in a trade war, a tech war, and now a new Cold WarCold War. Both nations should take their relationship risks far more seriously than they are doing so. Just as human pathology tells us that relationship conflicts cannot be resolved with one side imposing its system, its values, on the other, the same is true of nations. In that spirit, this article offers a three-part plan of Sino-American conflict resolution that breaks from the dysfunctional approach of the past.

This study investigates the pragmatic strategies employed by interpreters in Sino-U.S. diplomatic negotiations, with a specific focus on the application of politeness principles. As interpreters serve not only as linguistic translators but also as cultural mediators, their role is critical in navigating the complexities of communication, particularly during discussions on sensitive political, economic, and social issues. The research evaluates how interpreters balance their responsibilities, ensuring linguistic accuracy and cultural appropriateness while managing the face needs of both negotiating parties. Utilizing case analyses of significant diplomatic events, including the Shanghai Communiqué and Sino-U.S. trade negotiations, the study highlights the strategic use of positive and negative politeness strategies to foster mutual understanding and respect. The findings reveal that interpreters' application of these strategies significantly impacts the effectiveness of diplomatic communication, ultimately influencing negotiation outcomes. The study underscores the essential role of politeness in international relations and its implications for successful diplomatic engagements.

… to be effective. To … a Sino-American climate agreement may be difficult because of the important financial issues associated with reducing carbon emissions and the historic differences …

Recognizing the difference of labor laws between the U.S. and China, the U.S. parties need to recognize the differences when negotiating and investing in China, because some of the clauses can be settled when signing contracts or agreements. For China’s part, minimum wages are crucial for them to remember when they do business in the U.S.; the good thing is that they do not have to pay holidays that are different from China. Overall, the benefits are tremendous when the differences are recognized in advance of investments, contracts or agreement negotiations. Recognizing the differences between the two labor acts will avoid unnecessary cost and conflicts.

Introduction. The subject of the article is the China-US “Peace Pearl” program carried out in the 1980s within the context of the China-USA-USSR triangle. The focus of this study is the analysis of the formation and collapse of the “Peace Pearl” program, including its background events, through the lens of realist international relations theory. This analysis will also take into account the changes in the international arena during that period. Methods and materials. The analysis is based on a number of theoretical documents and historical facts, in combination with basic works of realist international relations theory scholars. Analysis. In the first half of the 1980s, the international context, viewed through the lens of realism, dictated China’s rapprochement with the United States, with the “Peace Pearl” program aimed at jointly improving 50 Chinese J-8II fighters embodying it, which allowed China to enhance its military and aerospace industries. However, in the second half of the 1980s, the political climate significantly changed. China and the USA shifted from cooperation to traditional mild rivalry due to significant political changes in the USSR (serving as structural stimulus, from a realist perspective, for the changes in politics) and political turmoil in China in 1989. As a result, the “Peace Pearl” program was abandoned. Results. First, structural factors in the international arena significantly influenced both the formation and collapse of the “Peace Pearl” program, with the changes in the USSR politics playing a vital role in this process. Second, China’s role as a mediator in a bipolar international system allowed it to gain benefit from the international configuration, as it obtained opportunities for its military development through the realization of the “Peace Pearl” program. Authors’ contribution. Menglong Li – writing the original text of the article, conceptualization, project management. Yifu Lin – collecting and searching a wide range of historical materials, government documents, and academic journals relevant to the compilation of the “Peace Pearl” program from both the United States and China sides. Aleksandra Gulkova – analyzing the program through the prism of neorealism, writing the part concerning the realist perspective, mainly its practical application in the context of the evaluation of the “Peace Pearl” program, assessing Russian sources, and applying them to the analysis of the “Peace Pearl” program case.

Sino†American relations are composed of a complex field of factors that have influenced both cooperation and confrontation between the Chinese and Americans. The factors that present the most obstacles are undoubtedly rooted in the Sino†American military relationship where there has been a great deal of potentially dangerous misunderstandings. Part one of this study provides an overview of the literature on Sino†American relations, Sino†American military relations, and perception within the context of those relations. Part two builds on the sparse literature that focuses on perception by further exploring how western media perceives military relations through the analysis of media articles published in the Washington Post and the New York Times between 2001 and 2017. How military relations are framed in the media is important for understanding the perceptual boundaries within which policymakers can act along the cooperative†confrontational continuum. The study concludes that the confrontational discursive approach dominating the framing of military relations is problematic for determining the most effective means of maintaining regional stability, order, and peace in the Asia Pacific region as well as facilitating geostrategic security cooperation between the two countries.

… Collaboration in education is one of the most effective forms … As such they are often highly sought mediators between … lag in their overall impact compared to their American and British …

… Such goodwill may extend to Sino-American and multilateral … The strengthening of Sino-American mutual strategic trust … focusing on the management of obvious differences. After all, in …

… The details may be different, but the state-society constraints of taxation for defense can be compared across very different types of regimes, as I compare the American and Chinese …

… wage, given their central role in the mediation and production of everyday life in modern soci… , since personal demand tends to be much more restricted compared to the previous wave. …

… 4, 1989 on Sino-American relations concludes that these … politics became a part of Sino-American relations as liberal human … Lastly, the research draws conclusions about the efficacy of …

During the current period of Sino-American tensions, historians should contribute to policy-making deliberations. The rich literature on US-China relations during World War II offers a suggestive test case that demonstrates the rewards of comparative and multi-disciplinary analysis–and highlights complexities too easily obscured by the fog of current war talk. In particular, the bilateral dynamics of 1940–1945 and the 2020s reveal two countries weighing powerfully countervailing calculations of security, economic, and psychological concerns. Then and now, this produces a context within which China and the US might be seen as balancing on the edge of a volcano–though it is important to recognize that the balancing is as important as the potential for eruption. Here, a Chinese historian and a Canadian-American historian collaborate to suggest the broad relevance of historical sensitivity to contemporary policy analysis–and the particular value of scholarly cooperation across fraught national boundaries.

This study examined Pakistan’s mediation role in the US–Iran ceasefire process and its implications for regional stability. The research explored how Pakistan functioned as an intermediary actor in facilitating indirect communication between Washington and Tehran during periods of heightened geopolitical tension. A qualitative research design was employed using secondary data sources, including peer-reviewed journal articles, policy reports, and academic publications. The sample consisted of 50 scholarly documents selected through purposive sampling, including 30 journal articles, 12 policy reports, and 8 academic books published between 2006 and 2026. Thematic analysis was applied to identify patterns related to mediation effectiveness, geopolitical constraints, and regional stability outcomes. Findings revealed that Pakistan played a significant role in communication facilitation and short-term crisis de-escalation between the United States and Iran. The results also indicated moderate improvement in regional stability, particularly in reducing escalation risks in maritime security zones and improving indirect diplomatic engagement. Structural limitations such as economic dependency, power asymmetry, and competing regional interests restricted long-term mediation effectiveness. The study concluded that Pakistan functioned primarily as a stabilizing mediator rather than a conflict resolver. The research highlighted the importance of middle-power diplomacy in contemporary international relations and emphasized that sustainable peace between the United States and Iran required broader multilateral engagement beyond bilateral mediation channels. References Acharya, A. (2018). The end of American world order. Polity Press. Beardsley, K. (2011). The mediation dilemma. Cornell University Press. Bercovitch, J., & DeRouen, K. (2005). Managing ethnic civil wars: Assessing the determinants of successful mediation. 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(2015). International mediation in theory and practice. Routledge. Touval, S., & Zartman, I. W. (2016). International mediation in theory and practice. Routledge. Wallensteen, P., & Svensson, I. (2014). Talking peace: International mediation in armed conflicts. Journal of Peace Research, 51(2), 1–15. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343313516617 Waltz, K. (1979). Theory of international politics. Addison-Wesley.

… of shuttle diplomacy-is designed to baffle the adversaries into believing that if the diplomat's … Our objective was to solidify the ceasefires [referring to the Suez agreement] so that we …

This study examined Pakistan’s strategic mediation role during the US–Iran conflict with particular focus on diplomacy, ceasefire politics, and the Strait of Hormuz crisis. The research investigated how Pakistan adopted balanced diplomatic engagement to reduce regional tensions, support ceasefire negotiations, and maintain maritime stability in the Persian Gulf. The study applied a qualitative research design using secondary data collected from journal articles, policy reports, diplomatic statements, and international media publications. A purposive sample of 40 secondary sources, including 20 peer-reviewed journal articles, 10 policy reports, and 10 international news analyses, supported the investigation. The findings revealed that bilateral diplomatic meetings represented 32% of Pakistan’s mediation activities, while ceasefire negotiation support accounted for 24%. The results further indicated that disruptions in global oil supply contributed 35% of the geopolitical impact associated with the Strait of Hormuz crisis. Pakistan’s diplomatic strategy improved regional dialogue by 30% and reduced immediate regional tensions by 26%, demonstrating the effectiveness of middle-power diplomacy in conflict management. The study concluded that Pakistan’s mediation efforts strengthened regional communication, supported temporary de-escalation, and enhanced its international diplomatic image. The research emphasized the growing importance of regional actors in contemporary geopolitical negotiations, maritime security cooperation, and ceasefire diplomacy within the Middle East. References Associated Press. (2026). China aims to show global leadership with Iran war diplomacy. Associated Press. Retrieved from AP News Bukhari, S. R. H. (2026a). From negotiation to escalation: Coercive diplomacy, military force, and the 2026 Iran–US nuclear conflict. Journal of Development and Social Sciences, 7(1), 301–315. https://doi.org/10.47205/jdss.2026(7-I)25 Bukhari, S. R. H. (2026b). Washington’s dual diplomatic offensive: U.S. strategy in Ukraine peace talks and Iran nuclear negotiations. Journal of Political Stability Archive, 4(1), 115–129. https://doi.org/10.63468/jpsa.4.1.29 Damayanti, A., Meresin, A., & Karyoprawiro, B. L. (2022). United States-Iran shared interest and the stability of the Strait of Hormuz. Global Strategis, 16(2), 357–378. https://doi.org/10.20473/jgs.16.2.2022.357-378 Divsallar, A. (2021). Shifting threats and strategic adjustment in Iran’s foreign policy: The case of Strait of Hormuz. British Journal of Middle Eastern Studies, 49(5), 873–895. https://doi.org/10.1080/13530194.2021.1874873 Duncombe, C. (2017). Twitter and transformative diplomacy: Social media and Iran–US relations. International Affairs, 93(3), 545–562. https://doi.org/10.1093/ia/iix048 Ehteshami, A., & Hinnebusch, R. (2019). The foreign policies of Middle East states. Middle East Policy, 26(2), 112–126. https://doi.org/10.1111/mepo.12416 Hasibuan, W. A. (2020). The Iran-United States confrontation in the Strait of Hormuz and its impact on the distribution of world oil sales. Jurnal ICMES, 4(2), 89–101. https://doi.org/10.35748/jurnalicmes.v4i2.89 Katzman, K. (2020). Iran’s foreign and defense policies. Congressional Research Service Review, 12(3), 44–61. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3567452 Lasani, B. (2026). Mediating rivalry: Pakistan's role as a middle power in United States-Iran relations. SSRN Electronic Journal. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.6733719 Mir, F., & Ayub, M. (2026). Pakistan’s mediatory diplomacy in U.S.–Iran relations: Balancing strategy and regional stability. Pakistan Journal of Social Science Review, 5(4), 678–696. https://doi.org/10.12345/pjssr.2026.785 Mohammed, M. (2026). Pakistan: The unexpected mediator in the 2026 US-Iran crisis. SSRN Electronic Journal. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.6643638 Naeem, M., Zahir, N., Khan, Y. R., & Tallat, S. (2026). From Ormus and Ind to the Strait of Hormuz: Linguistic constructions of wealth, power, and conflict from Milton to modern U.S.–Iran discourse. Journal of Applied Linguistics and TESOL. https://doi.org/10.63878/jalt2055 Noviyanto, H., Burhanuddin, A., & Abdullah, N. (2025). Security and sovereignty in the Strait of Hormuz: The Iran-USA conflict. Journal of Peace, Security and Democracy, 1(1), 87–105. https://doi.org/10.63280/jpsd.v1i1.42245 Reuters. (2026). China, Pakistan call for Iran peace talks, normal navigation in Strait of Hormuz. Reuters. Retrieved from Reuters Reuters. (2026). New mediators emerge in Iran war. Reuters. Retrieved from Reuters Report Rouhi, M. (2018). US–Iran tensions and the oil factor. Survival, 60(5), 33–40. https://doi.org/10.1080/00396338.2018.1518367

… Different strategies of third-party intervention in a conflict and their efficiency are analyzed. … considerable attention to the role of third-party intervention in conflict resolution, the choice of …

… management approaches based on empowerment of personnel, conflict management and third-party intervention … own conflicts can have an important impact on team performance. …

… experimental research on third party intervention in industrial … of the effects of third party intervention have increased in … Debate about the effectiveness of third party interventions, …

… will thereby be compelled to step in and take over the conflict's management. What, then, are the implications of this … Hence the efficacy of final offer arbitration, a procedure in which the …

ABSTRACT The concept of territorial peace is at the core of the peace agreement signed by the Colombian government and FARC guerrilla movement in 2016. Recognising the uneven distribution and experiences of violence across Colombia, territorial peace seeks to achieve peace and reconciliation through more inclusive citizenship and new forms of territorial development, including bottom up aspirations. Figuring prominently in official policies, the concept of territorial peace is being put to the test of implementation across regions and economic sectors. Building on studies of ‘extractive territories’ emphasising the emergence of territorial subjects and governable spaces of mineral extraction, we examine the case of gold mining, which saw a massive boom and numerous conflicts taking place around the time of peace negotiations and post-agreement transition. Whereas territorial peace called for a bottom-up and participatory approach resting on local communities and artisanal mining livelihoods, we find that the state turned to a top-down governance strategy mobilising alienating forms of formalisation, criminalisation and industrialisation. By exacerbating community marginalisation, social tensions, human rights abuses, and inequalities, we suggest that this strategy not only undermined some of the principles of a territorial peace, but risked perpetuating poverty, environmental degradation and various forms of violence.

ABSTRACT Conflicts have a strong impact on land tenure, use, distribution, accessibility, and governance; consequently, a sustainable strategy for peacebuilding requires the set-up of land-based institutional arrangements from the peace negotiation phase onwards. Based on the concept of territorial peace, these arrangements have a key role in the reconstruction of the collective, productive, and symbolic functions of the territory after conflicts, and in addressing conflict root causes related to land inequality. This paper contributes to the development of the concept of territorial peace by providing a framework for its operationalisation, based on three categories of arrangements, and testing it, to qualitatively explore and compare two comprehensive peace agreements: Colombia and the Philippines. Land may take the role of peacemaker in addressing territorial peace’s collective dimensions, especially when it is at the core of a peace agreement; however, its implementation remains volatile if it lacks trust, security, and technical capacity.

It is often suggested that Western peacebuilding in the occupied Palestinian territory has failed because it has not delivered a viable Palestinian state. But if peacebuilding is reinterpreted as a form of counterinsurgency whose goal is to secure a population, then it has not failed – in fact, on the contrary, it has been quite successful. This article therefore critically evaluates the idea and practice of peacebuilding as counterinsurgency by exploring the symbiosis in the philosophy and methods of COIN and peacebuilding, and charts its implementation in the oPt through the realms of governance, development, and security. It argues that peacebuilding in this context operates as another layer of pacification techniques whose goal is to secure the Palestinian population and ensure acquiescence in the face of violent dispossession.

… We propose that states make a strategic rational decision whether to resort to international … past territorial disputes – as an indication of the probability of winning in a subsequent dispute …

What explains selective violence against social and community leaders in the aftermath of war? This form of violence is often regarded as a spill-over product of wartime violence. We argue, however, that post-conflict selective violence occurs when the state delegates peacebuilding responsibilities to local leaders in areas of state weakness. Delegative peacebuilding describes a state's efforts to involve social and community leaders in peace programs in areas where its security apparatus or bureaucracy is weak or nonfunctional. Delegative peacebuilding mobilizes community leaders to implement state-led peace initiatives, making them focal points in the redistribution of power and resources. This positioning challenges the entrenched interests of local elites and armed groups, who often perceive these leaders as threats to their status as beneficiaries of the wartime status quo, thereby increasing their exposure to targeted violence. Our argument is grounded in immersive field research in Colombia, which has seen soaring levels of selective violence following the 2016 Peace Agreement. Employing a difference-in-differences design, we test the theory with original data on the assassination of social and community leaders (2014–2020).

… conflict and thus undermines peacebuilding efforts.Footnote 3 … and by the use of strategies like side payments or issue linkage.… and sovereignty over a national territory (and its adequate …

Territorial disputes remain a significant source of tension in … of territorial claims and the settlement of related disputes, this … for the settlement of territorial disputes. The different chapters …

… This book aims to fill these theoretical and empirical gaps on the evolution of ASEAN’s institutional strategy for managing great powers with regard to a regional traditional-security issue…

This article argues that a change in institutional strategy enables The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) to manage its great power relations and prevent their abrupt political intrusion into the region by providing the policy options of pur- suing institutional balancing, bandwagoning, hedging, or co-option. ASEAN’s strategy is not only to choose optimal policy under a changing security environment, but also to create an institutional division of labour by proliferating ASEAN-led institu- tions to ensure, as far as possible, regional autonomy and Member States’ security. Changes in ASEAN’s institutional strategy occur when its Member States expect a change in the regional distribution of power. However, due to constraints created by the existing institutional design it is difficult to make any drastic alteration to the institutional strategy unless a radical change in the regional power configuration occurs. This article examines the cases of East Asia Summit and ASEAN Defence Ministers Meeting (ADMM)/ADMM-Plus during the period 2005–2016, the compari- son of which illuminates the causes and processes of their strategy change and helps to deepen our understanding of the roles of regional security institutions.

… Asian analysts had indeed predicted then and keep predicting. ASEAN is an anomaly in the universe of great power … significantly to conflict reduction and management in Southeast …

… Asian Nations (ASEAN) conflict management process in the South China Sea (SCS) has been conducted and whether the ASEAN way can effectively manage … balance of power in the …

… conflict highlighted that, although conflict resolution involving the great powers was beyond the reach of ASEAN , diplomatic leadership as a means for legitimising great power …

ABSTRACT This article seeks to advance the recent turn in the literature on regionalism in the Asia–Pacific that considers the scope for an effective managerial role for the region’s great powers. Drawing on the work of the English School of International Relations on “great power management”, the article seeks to clarify the interaction between processes of regionalism and the special managerial rights and responsibilities of the great powers. It draws on both the lessons of historical instances of institutionalised great power management in the form of great power concerts and a theoretical reframing of the practice of great power management. The article argues in favour of a disaggregated approach that prioritises crisis management between the great powers over more expansive versions of great power management in the immediate term. Distinguishing between different types of great power management at both the global and regional levels and highlighting the different lessons that scholars have drawn from the history of great power concerts leads to three recommendations for aligning great power management with processes of regionalism. First, prioritising regular and purposely exclusive dialogue between the United States and China in the immediate term. Second, fostering ad-hoc regional power summits over the medium to long-term as the distribution of power in the region shifts from one of bipolarity to multipolarity. And third, throughout both phases, actively avoiding what is labelled “competitive minilateralism” that is likely to both compete with existing regional institutions and work against the order-building goals of great power management.

… -states, outside powers remain critical to … Asian relations with the great powers. I analyze that various scholars have conceptualized Southeast Asian strategies toward the great powers …

Described as a force for peace since its establishment in 1967, asean is now confronted with a slew of political and security issues that has severely challenged its modalities of addressing regional problems, including the internal conflicts of its member states. The continuing political crisis in Myanmar reflects the kinds of dilemmas faced by asean in keeping to its sticky regional norms and practices while being a responsive and effective regional organisation. As asean struggles to become “fit for purpose”, the paper argues that a negotiated “asean Way”, founded on ideas of positive peace and human security, allows asean to chart a renewed regional agenda for maintaining peace and security in Southeast Asia, while at the same time contributing to comprehensive efforts on managing regional conflicts and preventing atrocities.

… the problem of what constitutes ASEAN and its action in conflict management. It is true that … prominent executive power due to the position of the office subordinate to the ASEAN Summit …

… Based on the discussion in this section, the article's case studies will assess Indonesia's regional great-power management role on the basis of four questions. The first three (based on …

People who report frequently using cognitive reappraisal to decrease the impact of potentially upsetting situations report better affective functioning than people who report using cognitive reappraisal less frequently. However, most work linking everyday reappraisal use to affective outcomes has been correlational, making causal inference difficult. In this study, we examined whether 2 weeks of daily practice of reappraising negatively valenced personally relevant events would improve affective functioning compared with a wait-list control. Data were collected between 2021 and 2022 from a sample mainly comprised of females (82%) and who identified as Asian (35%) or White/Caucasian (40%). Our planned analyses indicated that reappraisal decreased depressive symptoms and perceived stress as well as increased life satisfaction both immediately and 4 weeks postintervention. Reductions in depressive symptoms and perceived stress were mediated by increases in reappraisal self-efficacy. These findings support the causal efficacy of brief reappraisal training. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2024 APA, all rights reserved).

… to learn about CET successes or implementation difficulties. … in basic neurocognition mediate functional outcomes ( 3 ). We … had some mediating influence on outcome but not nearly as …

… an agreement that will be implemented and durable? Specifically, does procedural justice (… to the durability of agreements. Types of processes and outcomes mediate that relationship …

… The agreements were also assessed on scales of implementation and durability over a five-… not shown to mediate the relationship between equality and durability (z = 1.40, p < .16). …

… its conceptual foundations, proximal mediators of student outcomes, and current research base … with a plan to implement a durable, state-level structure for implementing SWPBS. As a …

In this article, building on the earlier research on procedural justice (PJ) and civil society inclusion, we assess the effectiveness of various civil society inclusion modalities based on their impact on durable peace (DP). A set of hypotheses concerning civil society inclusion is evaluated using the fifty-case peace agreement dataset assembled by Druckman and Wagner (2019). Their study showed that PJ was a key predictor of DP. We take their model as the base and add inclusion variables step by step using a hierarchical regression model. Results show that inclusive commissions (ICs) add significant explained variance to the prediction of DP. None of the other modalities add significant variance to the prediction. A possible explanation is that ICs ensure the continuation of civil society inclusion between the negotiation and implementation phases of a peace process. As well, they optimize breadth and depth in an inclusive negotiation process. The article concludes with discussions of next steps in the research and develops implications for policy makers.

… permeability and durability through microstructural mediators (FT, … SEM supports a serial mediation mechanism in which design … To ensure the precise implementation of these gradation …

… explores the durability of outcomes arising from the use of all three modes of litigation, mediation, … such as errors and implementation issues, negotiated outcomes proved to be the least …

BackgroundThe World Health Organization recommends that nations implement evidence-based nutritional guidelines and policies in settings such as schools and childcare services to improve public health nutrition. Understanding the causal mechanism by which implementation strategies exert their effects could enhance guideline implementation. The aim of this study was to assess the mechanisms by which implementation strategies improved schools and childcare services’ adherence to nutrition guidelines.MethodsWe conducted a mechanism evaluation of an aggregated dataset generated from three randomised controlled trials conducted in schools and childcare services in New South Wales, Australia. Each trial examined the impact of implementation strategies that targeted Theoretical Domains Framework constructs including knowledge, skills, professional role and identity, environmental context and resources. We pooled aggregated organisation level data from each trial, including quantitative assessments of the Theoretical Domains Framework constructs, as well as measures of school or childcare nutrition guideline compliance, the primary implementation outcome. We used causal mediation analysis to estimate the average indirect and direct effects of the implementation strategies and assessed the robustness of our findings to varying levels of unmeasured and unknown confounding.ResultsWe included 121 schools or childcare services in the pooled analysis: 79 allocated to receive guideline and policy implementation strategies and 42 to usual practice. Overall, the interventions improved compliance (odds ratio = 6.64; 95% CI [2.58 to 19.09]); however, the intervention effect was not mediated by any of the four targeted Theoretical Domains Framework constructs (average causal mediation effects through knowledge = − 0.00 [− 0.05 to 0.04], skills = 0.01 [− 0.02 to 0.07], professional role and identity = 0.00 [− 0.03 to 0.03] and environmental context and resources = 0.00 [− 0.02 to 0.06]). The intervention had no significant effect on the four targeted Theoretical Domains Framework constructs, and the constructs were not associated with school or childcare nutrition guideline compliance. Potentially, this lack of effect could be explained by imprecise measurement of the mediators. Alternatively, it is likely that that the interventions were operating via alternative mechanisms that were not captured by the four Theoretical Domains Framework constructs we explored.ConclusionsEven though public health implementation strategies led to meaningful improvements in school or childcare nutrition guideline compliance, these effects were not mediated by key targeted constructs of the Theoretical Domains Framework. Future research should explore the mechanistic role of other Theoretical Domains Framework constructs and evaluate system-level mechanisms informed by an ecological framework.Trial registrationAll trials were prospectively registered with the Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry (ACTRN12613000543785. Registered 15/05/2013; ACTRN12614001148662. Registered 30/10/2014; ACTRN12615001032549. Registered 1/10/2015).

Leaders can improve implementation outcomes by developing an organizational climate conducive to the implementation of evidence-based practices (EBP). This study tested the lagged associations between individual-level perceptions of implementation leadership, implementation climate, and three anticipated implementation outcomes, that is EBP acceptability, appropriateness, and feasibility. Screening tools and treatment methods for posttraumatic stress disorder were implemented in 43 Norwegian mental health services. A sample of 494 child and adult mental health care professionals (M = 43 years, 78% female) completed surveys addressing perceptions of first-level leaders’ (n = 47) implementation leadership and their clinics’ implementation climate. Single-level structural equation models estimating both direct, indirect, and total effects were used to investigate whether perceived implementation climate mediated the association between perceived implementation leadership and perceived acceptability, appropriateness, and feasibility of screening tools and treatment methods. Regarding the treatment methods, implementation leadership was associated with therapists’ perceptions of acceptability, appropriateness, and feasibility. Implementation climate also mediated between implementation leadership and the outcomes. Regarding the screening tools, implementation leadership was not associated with the outcomes. However, implementation climate mediated between implementation leadership and therapists’ perceptions of acceptability and feasibility, but not appropriateness. Analyses with the implementation climate subscales showed stronger associations for therapists’ perceptions of the treatment methods than of screening tools. Leaders may promote positive implementation outcomes, both directly and through implementation climate. With regard to the effect sizes and explained variance, results indicated that both implementation leadership and implementation climate were more strongly associated with the therapists’ perceptions of the treatment methods, implemented by one group of therapists, than the screening tools, implemented by all therapists. This may imply that implementation leadership and climate may have stronger effects for smaller implementation teams within a larger system than for system-wide implementations or when the clinical interventions being implemented are more complex rather than simple ones. ClinicalTrials NCT03719651, 25 October 2018.

… correlations with their deviations of perceived implementation climate (mediator), implementation citizenship behavior, and attitudes toward EBP (outcomes) in both semesters. This …

… At the diplomatic level, recent de escalation efforts have also revealed important shifts in … less on direct superiority and more on distributed leverage. Israel’s strategic position has also …

Purpose This paper aims to seek to and understand how civil conflict and international claims inform one another. Does the existence of ongoing civil and international conflicts affect how a government addresses an international claim? The paper builds on existing literature that link international and domestic conflict. However, it suggests that the logic behind civil conflicts may be different from that for international ones as states decide how to deal with any one claim. Design/methodology/approach The paper posits that states faced with domestic conflicts and additional international claims are more likely to seek to resolve an international claim than those without similar conflicts. It develops a series of hypotheses about the likelihood of claim escalation and peaceful settlement attempts and proceed to test them quantitatively using the Issue Correlates of War data combined with the uppsala conflict data program/peace research institute oslo Armed Conflict Data. Findings On the one hand, the paper finds support for the argument regarding the difficulty states are faced with when seeking to resolve multiple international claims. On the other hand, it finds that the presence of civil conflicts incentivizes states to resolve international claims either by force or peacefully, suggesting internal violence can both lead to diversionary behavior and attempts at conflict resolution. Research limitations/implications The findings have important implications for work considering the complexity of domestic and international conflict linkages. Originality/value While many studies of claim militarization and peaceful attempts focus on dyadic and international characteristics, this paper creates a more nuanced understanding of the complexities of this foreign policy decision process.

… for a response that encompassed diplomatic, economic, and law … strategy in coercive diplomacy, potentially pressuring states … This approach, leveraging cyber capabilities for targeted …

… more nuanced positions, calling for de-escalation and dialogue while refraining from outright … The EU plays a nuanced role, combining economic leverage with diplomatic engagement. …

… Similarly, a de-escalation of, say, Saudi-Yemeni conflict is … predicated on intense diplomacy followed by increased military… to each and maximized American leverage. This was so, in …