鱼类市场分析和预测

China is a major player in the marine fish trade. The price prediction of marine fish is of great significance to socio-economic development and the fisheries industry. However, due to the complexity and uncertainty of the marine fish market, traditional forecasting methods often struggle to accurately predict price fluctuations. Therefore, this study adopts an intelligent combination model to enhance the accuracy of food product price prediction. Firstly, three decomposition methods, namely empirical wavelet transform, singular spectrum analysis, and variational mode decomposition, are applied to decompose complex original price series. Secondly, a combination of bidirectional long short-term memory artificial neural network, extreme learning machine, and exponential smoothing prediction methods are applied to the decomposed results for cross-prediction. Subsequently, the predicted results are input into the PSO–CS intelligence algorithm for weight allocation and to generate combined prediction results. Empirical analysis is conducted using data illustrating the daily sea purchase price of larimichthys crocea in Ningde City, Fujian Province, China. The combination prediction accuracy with PSO–CS weight allocation is found to be higher than that of single model predictions, yielding superior results. With the implementation of weight allocation intelligent combinatorial modelling, the prediction of marine fish prices demonstrates higher accuracy and stability, enabling better adaptation to market changes and price fluctuations.

… do not seem to be available, aside from the ultra-short-term forecasts in Friday afternoon surveys by the fish news portal IntraFish. 2 Seeing this gap, I will henceforth focus on the short-…

… influenced consumer behaviour in fish purchases. To forecast fish prices during an incident of fraud, we used an artificial neural network model (ANN) based on the price of tuna and its …

Changes in the consumption price of aquatic products will affect demand and fishermen’s income. The accurate prediction of consumer price index provides important information regarding the aquatic product market. Based on the non-linear and non-smooth characteristics of fishery product price series, this paper innovatively proposes a fishery product price forecasting model that is based on Variational Modal Decomposition and Improved bald eagle search algorithm optimized Long Short Term Memory Network (VMD-IBES-LSTM). Empirical analysis was conducted using fish price data from the Department of Marketing and Informatization of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs of China. The proposed model in this study was subsequently compared with common forecasting models such as VMD-LSTM and SSA-LSTM. The research results show that the VMD-IBES-LSTM model that was constructed in this paper has good fitting results and high prediction accuracy, which can better explain the seasonality and trends of the change of China’s aquatic product consumer price index, provide a scientific and effective method for relevant management departments and units to predict the aquatic product consumer price, and have a certain reference value for reasonably coping with the fluctuation of China’s aquatic product market price.

… No derivative markets exist; consequently, no one can hedge prices. If prices could be … This study used six easily applicable procedures to forecast weekly producer prices for salmon. …

… of market prices in the Canadian fish supply chain with particular attention to price setting in and forecasting in the first-hand market for fish.Footnote 4 Three market segments define the …

… aids to price forecasting to avoid such market … A forecasting support system is considered as an effective alternative tool to help them in forming their expectations about future fish market…

… framework for forecasting and adaptively managing price volatility… proven effective for time series forecasting in many contexts, they … , that first applies a forecasting model enhanced with …

… Due to the complexity of the fish market, existing limited studies about fish prices were not able to capture these price volatilities in their forecast. The reason for that is the use of …

Small pelagic fish play a key role in human nutrition, especially in emerging countries, as they are affordable protein sources and provide income for fishing communities. Despite their nutritional benefits for human health, prices are the main factor when choosing seafood as diet components, which highlights the relevance of an economic analysis, since changes in fish prices might alter the feeding patterns of populations worldwide. This study analyzed the price dynamics of the Sardinella brasiliensis in one of the main markets in northeast Brazil and employed machine learning techniques to forecast future prices. The dataset was obtained from the Pernambuco Supply and Logistics Center website, and it was modeled using the FbProphet library in addition to a long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network in order forecast future prices. Both algorithms reached low error metrics, but LSTM performed significantly better, showing its usability in the economic context of marine products.

Price is one of the important things that need to concern as defining factor of the profit or loss of product selling as the result of price fluctuations that are very difficult to control. Price fluctuations are caused by many factors including weather, stock availability, demand and others. One of the steps to solve the price fluctuations problem is by making a forecast of fish incoming prices. The purpose of this study is to apply Markov chain’s fuzzy time series to forecast farming fish prices. Markov chain fuzzy time series is one of the prediction methods to predict time series data that has advantages in the implentation of historical data, flexible, and high level of data forecasting accuracy. This study used fish prices at November 2018. The results showed that markov chain fuzzy time series showed very accurate forecasting results with a mean error percentage of absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 1.4% so the accuracy of the Markov chain fuzzy time series method is 98, 6%.

Abstract In this paper, a time-varying student-t copula is used to capture information on price volatility dependence in the short-, medium-, and long-run horizon in the US market for frozen and fresh salmon, trout, tilapia and catfish. Using monthly data from July 1992 to March 2017, the volatility dynamics for these aquaculture species are assessed. The analysis allows indicating significant differences in the volatility relationships, depending on time-frequency. While short-run volatility has limited dependency, there is significant dependency in both the medium- and long-run, indicating that market integration is stronger in the long-run. The information is particularly important to buyers and producers utilizing the futures markets, as contracts are typically traded using a set of frequencies, and may help them manage and reduce price risk.

… by proposing daily fresh fish demand forecasting models that can … estimated the demand for fresh fish in a representative store … models provided accurate forecasts in comparison to the …

Abstract Volatility in catfish pond bank and feed prices lead to profit uncertainty in the catfish industry. Analysis of the factors that affect those prices and development of a forecasting model would provide guidance to catfish farm managers. Error-correction models (ECM) based on cointegrating relationships among variables were specified following development of a single-equation ARIMAX model. Factors identified as those that influence catfish price were: lagged value of catfish, feed and substitute product prices, while those that influenced feed price were: lagged value of feed, corn and soybean prices. ECM estimates implied that fish price adjusts approximately 6% and feed price 22% to the long-run equilibrium in 1 month. The analysis showed that it takes less than 17 months and 5 months to correct for long-run disequilibrium for catfish and feed prices, respectively. The ARIMAX model demonstrated a better fit for both in-sample and out-of-sample forecasting for catfish price and had better out-of-sample predictive ability for feed prices.

Interest in retail seafood sales increased dramatically with the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. The diversity of species, types of products, product forms, and packaging of the seafood sold at retail, combined with diverse consumer preferences across the United States, requires detailed data and analysis to provide guidance and understanding of emerging trends. Weekly, store-based, Nielsen Scantrack data for the period of September 2016 through August 2021 were used to compare trends in US retail (supermarket) seafood sales across the 5-year study period, in continental regions, cities, and species categories sold. Results showed continuous increases in retail seafood sales over the study period at an average annual growth rate of 8.1%, much of which was fueled by the 21% increase in total sales (19.5% increase in quantity sold) the first year after the onset of the pandemic. The South Atlantic region was found to have the greatest total sales and sales per capita among regions. New York City had the greatest total seafood sales, followed by Los Angeles and Philadelphia. The top five most important species categories in terms of sales were, in declining order, shrimp, salmon, tuna, crab, and tilapia, although regional variability became apparent from the fourth-ranked species. The most important package sizes were 454- and 907-g packs. Frozen and refrigerated categories dominated sales (70% in 2021), with little growth in entrees and a decline in market share of shelf-stable seafood products in 2021. Retail supermarket seafood sales increased dramatically following the onset of the pandemic, with especially notable percentage increases in lobster (77%) and crab sales (70%) and the lowest percentage increases in tuna (1%) and tilapia (13%). Given that US per capita seafood consumption did not show a corresponding increase over the study period, study results likely indicate a shift to greater relative consumption at home and not an overall increase in US seafood sales.

… example of seafood market analysis, where several levels of the market and interactions … Specifically, this study tied the retail and import demand sectors, through the wholesale sector, …

… However, the demand outlook for seafood products during the pandemic has been brought … accelerate the global seafood market recovery and decrease the seafood trade inequalities …

Abstract The demand for fish in Sub-Saharan Africa, as driven by the trend of diet-shift to fish, economic and demographic growth, outstrips supply. The resulting fish deficit is drawing attention of policy makers as it poses threats to economic stability as well as food security in the region. In this paper, a multi-species, multi-sector equilibrium model is developed and applied to Zambia as a case study to provide a tool for policy makers to examine the interaction between fish supply and demand. Projection results show that under business-as-usual scenario, the fish deficit in Zambia will increase and fish import will be a key contributor of fish for consumption in 2030. Increasing import tax will not solve the fish deficit due to a limited substitution between domestic and imported fish, while this tariff restriction may increase the fish price and affect poor people. The model results suggest that further investment in aquaculture could provide a solution if input markets for seed and feed are appropriately developed. Though calibrated to Zambia's fish sector, the model can be applied to analyze the outlook of fish sectors in other developing countries.

Abstract Global food demand is rising, and serious questions remain about whether supply can increase sustainably (FAO 2018). Land-based expansion is possible but may exacerbate climate change and biodiversity loss, and compromise the delivery of other ecosystem services (Olsen 2011; Foley et al. 2005, 2011; Mbow et al. 2019; Amundson et al. 2015). As food from the sea represents only 17% of the current production of edible meat, we ask how much food we can expect the ocean to sustainably produce by 2050. Here we examine the main food-producing sectors in the ocean—wild fisheries, finfish mariculture and bivalve mariculture—to estimate ‘sustainable supply curves’ that account for ecological, economic, regulatory and technological constraints. We overlay these supply curves with demand scenarios to estimate future seafood production. We find that under our estimated demand shifts and supply scenarios (which account for policy reform and technology improvements), edible food from the sea could increase by 21–44 million tons by 2050, a 36–74% increase compared to current yields. This represents 12–25% of the estimated increase in all meat needed to feed 9.8 billion people by 2050. Increases in all three sectors are likely, but are most pronounced for mariculture. Whether these production potentials are realized sustainably will depend on factors such as policy reforms, technological innovation and the extent of future shifts in demand.

Seafood sector can contribute to the global food supply in an important way, and provide an important source of animal protein. Based on observed regional trends in seafood production and consumption and using a global, partial-equilibrium, multi-market model, this study investigates what the global seafood market may look like in 2030. The model projects that the total fish supply will increase from 154 million tons in 2011 to 186 million tons in 2030, with aquaculture entirely responsible for the increase. The fastest aquaculture growth is expected for tilapia and shrimp, while the largest expansion is expected in India, Latin America and Caribbean and Southeast Asia. Fast-growing seafood demand in China and elsewhere represents a critical opportunity for global fisheries and aquaculture to improve their management and achieve sustainable seafood economy.

Ukraine is one of the states that, to a large extent, meet their own needs for various crop and livestock products. At the same time, the capabilities of our agricultural sector allow forming an offer in an amount sufficient for profitable supplies to other countries. Therefore, when considering in detail the functioning of most agri-food markets in Ukraine, production and export are mainly described as the main structural elements of the balance sheet. In the case of the fish and seafood market, a completely different picture is observed, when the indicators and features of import and consumption come to the fore. The problem of import dependence in this segment only increases over time, caused by a combination of objective and subjective factors of an economic, social, and political nature. It is important from a scientific standpoint in this context to compare individual indicators of the world and Ukrainian fish and seafood markets to demonstrate the reasons for the different levels of their development at the present stage. The need to consider these and other related issues indicates the relevance of this topic. The purpose of the study is to investigate the situation on the Ukrainian fish and seafood market, the importance of its import for the generation of domestic supply and demand, to determine the potential of production in Ukraine at the expense of its own specialised industries. The following methods are used: theoretical generalisation, analysis and synthesis, comparative evaluation, historical, graphical, and tabular. The dynamics of import to Ukraine of products of group 3 of the UKTZED “Fish, crustaceans, mollusks” in quantitative and cost indicators, the general balance of these products, changes in its production by Ukrainian enterprises together with the key reasons, a detailed description of quantitative and qualitative indicators of the global market for these products, in particular, with the selection of leading countries in production, exports, consumption trends, assessed the prospects for its development, established a focus on the systemic development of the world market of fish and seafood in the context of movement of goods from primary producer to the final consumer, provided proposals for Ukrainian market to increase own production through legalisation and stimulation of aquaculture. The provisions of the study are aimed at informing Ukrainian industry enterprises, potential producers, and responsible state authorities about current trends in the global fish and seafood market to identify the potential of domestic production and reduce Ukraine’s dependence on imports of this group of products.

… We employ LSTM and GRU models to predict seafood exports. These -models can capture temporal dependencies and manage inherent complexities in time-series data effectively. …

The present study was conducted to examine the market wise and product wise growth, instability and direction of fish export from India. This study was based on secondary data on market wise and product-wise marine export in terms of quantity and value was collected from different sources like Marine Products Export Development Authority of India and Indiastat. The analytical tools like Markov Chain Analysis were employed to analyze the movement (direction) of export of fish over time, Compound Annual Growth Rate analysis was used to estimate the growth in export and Cuddy-Della Valle method was used to estimate the extent of instability in export of fish over a period of time. The findings reveals that, In 2018-19, South East Asia was the major importer of Indian fish in terms of quantity with 32.10 per cent and USA was the leading importer in terms of value with 34.81 per cent. Except China, growth in fish export of to all countries was positively significant. South East Asia has recorded a highest growth in fish export. Markets like USA, China and SEA were more instable markets for Indian fish products. Among these China was the most instable fish export market both in terms of quantity (42.38) and value (52.90). Japan, European Original Research Article Guledagudda et al.; JEMT, 26(11): 54-65, 2020; Article no.JEMT.66159 55 Union and Middle East were the more stable international markets for India fish. Among these markets European Union was the least instable (more stable) market with instability index of 7.13 and 11.53 in terms of quantity and value. With respect to reliability of markets USA, European Union, China and South East Asia are the more loyal among importers of Indian fish as reflected by higher probability of 0.90, 0.87, 0.88 and 0.90 respectively. In 2018-19,among all fish products exported frozen shrimp was the leading product both in terms of quantity of 6,14,154 MT (44.10% tot total export) and value of Rs.31,801 crore (68.26% of total exported value). With respect to product wise growth, all items have shown significant positive growth but dried items have recorded a highest significant and positive growth of 14.40 per cent in terms of quantity and 19.43 per cent in terms of value.Frozen shrimp was the most instable exported fish product both in terms of quantity (31.55) and value (43.60) followed by dried items (29.65 in quantity and 26.63 in values).

Fisheries are of immense importance to Mediterranean countries, for protein, employment and livelihoods. Studies addressing the factors affecting fish price dynamics are of interest to examine their drivers as prices often dictate target fisheries. This study investigates fish market prices in relation to landings and fish sizes from Türkiye’s largest fish market in Istanbul as the study site. A total of 39 wild marine taxa were examined for their landed catch (kg) and average prices (per unit/TRY) from 2006 to 2019. We found fish prices increased from small pelagic to medium pelagic to demersal fish. GAM model results for inter-species tests showed a strong positive effect of local maximum length (p < 0.01) and a weaker positive effect of trophic level and vulnerability (p < 0.1) on fish market price, but that landings amounts have no significant effect as a single predictor. Monthly price variations of bluefish and bonito were completely different than other species dynamics, as the last substantial commercial medium pelagic fish species left; highest monthly prices were related to the highest monthly landings for bonito and for the non-closure period for bluefish. Market prices as economic indicators for fisheries may have the potential to reveal ecosystem variations as well as socioeconomic drivers. Databases including extensive data for key fish sales centers can be used to help understand fishery dynamics from an ecosystem perspective, especially for data-poor regions like Türkiye.

… fisheries. This article provides an overview of global trade flows in fish and fishery products … It then moves on to review trade policy measures applied in major producing and importing …

Fisheries management increasingly demands robust forecasting tools to address growing environmental variability, anthropogenic pressures and complex ecological dynamics. This review systematically examines innovative modelling and forecasting approaches in fisheries, focusing on their descriptions, applications, strengths and limitations and comparative performance based on quantitative and qualitative evaluation criteria. Drawing on major scientific databases with studies published between 2000 and 2023, the review covers a broad spectrum of models, including Population Dynamics Models, Ecosystem Models, Statistical and Time Series Models, Machine Learning Models, Bioeconomic Models, Simulation Models, Spatial and Habitat Models and other emerging approaches. Historically, fisheries forecasting evolved from basic observational methods to advanced computational and statistical techniques. Conventional models such as surplus production and age‐structured models remain valuable for certain stable systems with limited data. However, ecosystem‐based models (e.g., Ecopath with Ecosim, Atlantis) and machine learning techniques (e.g., neural networks, random forests, deep learning) offer enhanced adaptability and predictive accuracy, particularly under dynamic and uncertain conditions. Despite these advances, challenges persist, including data scarcity, difficulties in model validation and integration of socio‐economic and climate‐related variables. Hybrid models that combine ecological, economic and social factors, especially those incorporating real‐time data and artificial intelligence, show promise for improving fisheries forecasting. Progress in this field will require interdisciplinary collaboration, enhanced data systems and stronger policy integration to ensure sustainable fisheries management. This review provides a structured framework to guide researchers and decision‐makers in selecting and developing more adaptive, accurate and actionable forecasting tools in the face of global environmental change.

… volatility of fish prices on a global scale using trade data. The … fish prices to other commodities to investigate their volatility in a broader context. Given the importance of trade in fisheries …

Along the last ten years fish and fishery product trade in Brazil has been on a downward trajectory turning a profit of US$ 98.6 million in 2005 into a loss of US$ 1.25 billion by 2014. On the other hand, the country is a leading producer of grains and has the third largest animal feed industry in the world, which has added 5.5 million hectares of freshwater reservoirs and 3.5 million km2 of an exclusive marine economic zone in the same period, a sizable potential for development of the aquaculture industry. This study aims at unveiling strategies for the reduction of the deficit in the Brazilian seafood trade balance, based on critical analysis of the quantitative and qualitative characteristics of imported fishery products. The fish and fishery product trade in Brazil, from 2005 to 2015, was studied considering import and export data mined from the Brazilian Ministry of Development, Industry and Commerce databases through the Aliceweb system, and clustered as follows: processing; product species; origin; conservation; and group. The main imported products were gutted fresh fish, highest price (salmon); salted dried fish, higher price (cod); frozen fish fillets, lowest price (fish and hake). The replacement of fish imports by domestic production is not enough to enable consumers to identify the equivalence between products (technical, qualitative or organoleptic). Developing strategies for the production of fish and fishery products at competitive prices and quantities that meet consumer demand is an immediate need, and the development of the aquaculture industry a rational strategy.

… in the US, European, and Japanese markets are not only aimed at food safety and the protection of consumer health but also act as trade barriers to protect their own domestic seafood …

… most traded animal protein globally, with a significant contribution to food security in emerging economies. Therefore, it is crucial to conduct studies that aim to predict … croaker traded in a …

Predicting the export price of shrimp is important for Vietnam’s fisheries. It not only promotes product quality but also helps policy makers determine strategies to develop the national shrimp industry. Competition in global markets is considered to be an important factor, one that significantly influences price. In this study, we predicted trends in the export price of Vietnamese shrimp based on competitive information from six leading exporters (China, India, Indonesia, Thailand, Ecuador, and Chile) who, alongside Vietnam, also export shrimp to the US. The prediction was based on a dataset collected from the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), and the World Trade Organization (WTO) (May-1995 to May-2019) that included price, required farming certificates, and disease outbreak data. A super learner technique, which combined 10 single algorithms, was used to make predictions in selected base periods (3, 6, 9, and 12 months). It was found that the super learner obtained results in all base periods that were more accurate and stable than any candidate algorithms. The impacts of variables in the predictive model were interpreted by a SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) analysis to determine their influence on the price of Vietnamese exports. The price of Indian, Thai, and Chinese exports highlighted the advantages of being a World Trade Organization member and the disadvantages of the prevalence of shrimp disease in Vietnam, which has had a significant impact on the Vietnamese shrimp export price.

Fisheries import and export trade is an important component of agricultural trade and has a significant impact on national economic growth. Through the forecast of the development of fishery import and export trade, it can provide reference for the fishery management department to formulate reasonable policies and regulations to promote the sustainable development of fishery. This paper uses the import and export trade amount data in the China Fishery Statistical Yearbook as the experimental sample. In order to solve the characteristics of overfitting and insufficient generalization ability that are prone to occur in few-shot prediction, the idea of weighted moving average method is introduced for data enhancement. Through experimental simulation, optimizing the hyperparameters of the Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory Recurrent Neural Network (BiLSTM) to build a predictive model. Input the expanded samples into the trained BiLSTM prediction model to predict the import and export trade data of fishery aquatic products. Experimental results show that this model has higher prediction accuracy and stability than commonly used models such as Gated Recurrent Units (GRU), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), and Back-propagation (BP) neural network.

… of trade openness and income, we adopt the instrumental variable approach. We find that a rise in trade openness reduces fisheries … Based on this prediction, an increase in the trade …

… production volume and market demand. This study aims to develop a fish price prediction model using … to the understanding of price risks as part of the income risk associated with trade. …

Price volatility has an important impact on seafood markets and the aquaculture industry. This article investigates price volatility regimes along three dimensions; technology, species …

Abstract Assessing the potential economic and financial feasibility of a new aquaculture operation requires, amongst other things, an estimate of the price the product is expected to receive once produced. For new species, such prices may not be apparent in the market. In this study, we develop a hedonic pricing model to estimate the expected price of a species being considered for aquaculture, but which does not have a current market presence in Australia. The model includes information on a wide range of other species that are currently traded in the market, including low and high value species; farmed and wild caught, and domestically produced or imported. The characteristics of these species, including product form (e.g., whole, fillets, fresh, frozen, etc.) and taste characteristics (e.g., texture, moistness) are regressed against their price. Four different functional forms of the model are applied: log-linear, linear, semi-loglinear and the use of a Box-Cox transformation of the price variable. Sensory testing was undertaken to assess the characteristics of the new species, and the model was used to provide estimates of its likely market price if it is to be produced.

… empirical model used in this article for estimating price … in price transmission behavior between aquaculture and capture fisheries products. For aquaculture products, elasticities of price …

Abstract Given the high share of fisheries and aquaculture production entering international trade the analysis of seafood trade is of key importance for any policy measure in the aquaculture and fisheries sectors. In this study a gravity model is developed to explore the influence on seafood trade of primary production, food consumption, population, income, GDP, trade agreements and geographical distance. The model is applied to the entire seafood aggregate, in comparison with meat, over time, and at different levels of aggregation of commodities: by main commercial species, processing and preservation stage and aquaculture versus fisheries origin. From the methodological perspective the model formulation addresses two main issues in gravity models which are the incorporation of a multilateral resistance term and the treatment of zero trade flows. The results of the model indicate the peculiarities of seafood trade in respect of meat and, within the seafood aggregate, the extreme diversification of trade determinants linked to the commercial characteristics of the products. Seafood trade is attracted either by countries with well-established seafood preferences or by countries with low labour costs for further processing, while meat exports are favoured by high per capita income and high primary production of the exporting country. Seafood trade is expanding under the influence of two key forces: one is the growth of aquaculture production and the other is the trade for re-processing. These two phenomena are clearly emerging from the differences in the model coefficients when considering disaggregated seafood trade.

Abstract Market prices of seafood underpin harvest and management strategies for fisheries and aquaculture. Beche-de-mer (processed, dried sea cucumbers) are highly valued in Asian markets. Market prices of Pacific Island beche-de-mer were previously reported from data collected in 2011. Recent economic slowdown in China and government austerity policy have dampened demand for certain luxury seafood products. This study presents updated data on prices, and relationships with product size, of beche-de-mer from 24 species of Indo-Pacific sea cucumbers sold in Hong Kong and Guangzhou, China. Average retail prices were highest in Hong Kong. Prices per individual increased exponentially with increasing beche-de-mer length for three high-value species, Holothuria fuscogilva (white teatfish), H. lessoni (golden sandfish) and H. scabra (sandfish). However, for seven other species, price per unit weight did not relate significantly to product length. Across 20 species, average prices increased by an average of 16.6% from 2011 to 2016, equating to an increase of 2.4% p.a., slightly exceeding China’s average CPI increase over the same period (2.1% p.a.). Products that were traditionally lower value appear more accepted in the marketplace. The analysed relationships offer rationale for large minimum legal size limits to improve the economic performance of fisheries for the high-value species H. fuscogilva, H. lessoni and H. scabra . The disproportionately high prices for larger specimens of these species also challenge a rethink of optimal harvest strategies for aquaculture operations. Lastly, the findings provide evidence of increasing demand and retail prices for these luxury seafood products in an ambiguous market climate.

… aquaculture growth rates are found to have important consequences not only for future fish prices … Sub-Saharan Africa is particularly affected by the growth rate of aquaculture production…

This paper explores the seafood sector in Indonesia, using fish supply-demand modeling, with special focus on the growing role of aquaculture in the country's food portfolio. The paper …

Abstract Despite recent dramatic growth in seafood consumption worldwide, knowledge about seafood demand is limited relative to other protein sources. We model demand across three major protein categories (i.e., terrestrial meat, seafood, and plant-based protein) in South Korea to fill the research gap. This study models a quadratic almost ideal demand system (QUAIDS) by utilizing household panel data. The study takes this one step further by modeling demand within four seafood categories (i.e., fish, cephalopods, shellfish, and crustaceans). Sociodemographic variables, including health-related factors, are incorporated into the demand models. Results indicate that seafood is in a complementary relationship with terrestrial meat while it is a substitute for plant-based protein. All four seafood categories are a substitute for each other. The results reveal that people who take their health seriously tend to consume more seafood, particularly fish. The results have economic and marketing implications for which strategies could be adopted to influence seafood consumption.

… Extension to the seafood industry has been a challenge. For example, initiatives to establish … the variance of the spot prices in Model 3 and seasonality effects in Model 4 to check for …

… We analyzed overall trends by volume, value, and average prices for major seafood categories at the US level for the period of July 2005 to June 2010. The trends were also analyzed …

… the price of seafood was rising faster than food prices, overall. As an example, seafood prices … wider applications in the literature, a logit model was chosen to identify underlying socio-…

… , in turn, put pressure on domestic prices. Perhaps a pure time series model would provide additional information about the reciprocal relationship between seafood trade and prices. …

This paper provides a time‐series analysis of the prices of three species of cultured groupers, namely the red grouper (Epinephelus akaara), green grouper (Epinephelus coioides) and …

… and regression analyses of time-series data on seafood consumption … price of seafood. The two-phase regression analyses of per capita consumption and of the relative price of seafood …

ABSTRACT Studies on price trends of seafood products in the medium run remain scarce. In this paper, we investigate changes in first-sale prices of fish sold in France over the last 25 years. Drawing on the index number literature, we construct monthly chained fish price indices which are free from seasonal fluctuations. Our empirical analysis relies on a dataset including 126 million transactions completed in all French fish markets from 1994 to 2020. We show that first-sale prices of seafood products have substantially increased in the medium run, more than the inflation rate, except during the economic crisis from 2007 to 2009 and recently in 2020 due to the Covid pandemic. However, those higher prices have not always led to an increase in sales revenue of fishermen because of the continuous decrease in fish catches. In particular, the economic situation of fisheries has substantially worsen since 2017.

We used an index approach to calculate demand growth for seafood in 107 countries from 1984 to 2013. We used the results to calculate aggregate demand growth by income level, regionally, and globally. While seafood production has more than doubled since the mid-1980s, we showed that global demand for seafood has been higher than the global seafood supply. Demand growth for seafood varies across time, countries, regions, and income groups. The average annual seafood demand growth across countries varies between −6% and 7.5%. Global demand growth for seafood has steadily declined since the 1980s; a slowdown of demand in Asia is the main cause. South America and Africa had the highest demand growth from 2004 to 2013, while both North America and Oceania had negative demand growth in this period. High-income countries have had consistently low seafood demand growth from 1984 to 2013, while demand growth in all other income levels has been substantially larger.

Abstract The COVID‐19 pandemic has spread around the world, disrupting economies, societies and daily life. Early research anticipated significant negative impacts for the globalized seafood supply network. Here, we explore the impact of the COVID‐19 pandemic on wholesale prices from five major seafood markets around the world. An anomalies analysis was used to establish a 5‐year baseline price for each commodity. Daily price data from 2020 were compared to the baseline to identify collapses (>1.96 SE from baseline) and analyse collapse characteristics (timing, duration and magnitude). Non‐uniform price collapses were observed across, and within, the markets analysed. Toyosu (Tokyo) Market experienced price collapses to 51% of commodities, Rungis (Paris) 36%, Mercamadrid (Madrid) 19%, Mercado La Nueva Viga (Mexico City) 35% and the Portland Fish Exchange (Portland, Maine) 32%. Collapse magnitude varied from 11% to 79% of the 5‐year average price. Average collapse duration ranged from 13 to 24 weeks with some commodities (4%–22%) remaining collapsed at the end of 2020. For markets where volume data were available, collapses were also noted (59% of commodities in Toyosu, 10% in Mercamadrid and 19% in Portland Fish Exchange); in these cases, the volume collapse was more severe than the related price collapse. To better detect, anticipate and respond to future shocks, we recommend that relevant government agencies conduct comprehensive economic reviews of the COVID‐19 pandemic throughout the seafood supply chain, including the outcomes of emergency measures, short‐ and long‐term implications of market volatility and identify areas of supply and labour vulnerabilities.

The demand for and supply of Norwegian farmed Atlantic salmon in the United States and European Community are estimated using a dynamic specification and monthly statistics spanning from 1983 through 1987. Time series analysis is conducted to generate future values of exogenous variables which are incorporated into the econometric model to forecast the future FOB prices of Norwegian farmed Atlantic salmon in the US and the EC. The results show that these prices will be in a slight decline but not enough to be of great concern to the US salmon fishermen and famers in the short-run.

… their price transmission relationships along the seafood … prices had a long-run equilibrium relationship at different stages of the seafood supply chain and presented inconsistent price …

This article seeks to analyse the factors that determine the dynamics of the balance between supply and demand in the Spanish fresh fish market. For this, the time-series of fresh fish landed in the 1973 – 2009 period is analysed through an estimation of the series of transfer function models. Among other things, the findings in the Spanish case show a complex relationship between the amount of fish landed and price; a clear substitution relationship between fresh fish and aquaculture; a negative impact of labour costs in a manual labour-intensive sector such as fishing, which in developed countries is being affected by an exodus of manpower to other sectors where there is less uncertainty surrounding labour conditions; the impact of Spain being barred from international fishing grounds a result of the delimitation of exclusive economic zones (EEZs); and the dwindling importance of fisheries traffic as a result of the port devolution process begun in Spain in the early 1990s. The non-significance of a priori key factors, such as the price of oil and Spain’s entry into the EEC, can be explained by widespread energy subsidies and contradictions in the objectives of the Common Fisheries Policy, respectively.

… of the Japanese substitute fish prices. Each of the above variables was assigned the value observed in the first quarter of 1992. By assigning 1992 values to the future value of the CPI, …

Abstract Learning the extent of price volatility is critical to ensure the producer and consumer’s economic welfare. Hence, we have envisioned assessing the price transmission relationship over time among the farmgate, wholesale, and retail markets for the four major aquaculture products, namely Rui, Catla, Tilapia and Pangas in Bangladesh. The Granger causality test examined the causal relationships among the farmgate, wholesale and retail fish prices. The Houck/Ward and error correction approach was also applied to study their price transmission pattern. Results indicate that the retail price leads the wholesale and farmgate price. In most cases, the coefficient of variation decreases as the fish handover from the farmgate to retail levels. Out of 15 pairs of farmgate, wholesale, and retail price-series analyzed, 14 pairs are co-integrated (p < 0.01). Current results also suggest that the price transmission pattern is symmetric in the short run but could be a mixture of symmetric and asymmetric in the long run. This asymmetric price behavior indicates that changes in retail prices do not get reflected fully at both farmgate and wholesale prices, and the transmitted prices may vary according to the retail prices based on their rising or falling pattern.

Purpose This paper aims to put forward and compare two accessible approaches to model and forecast spot prices in the fishing industry. The first modelling approach is a Markov-switching model (MSM) in which a Markov chain captures different economic regimes and a stochastic convenience yield is embedded in the spot price. The second approach is based on a multi-factor model (MFM) featuring three correlated stochastic factors. Design/methodology/approach The two proposed approaches are analysed in terms of parameter-estimation accuracy, information criteria and prediction performance. For MSM’s calibration, the quasi-log-likelihood method was applied directly while for the MFM’s parameter estimation, this paper designs an enhanced multi-variate maximum likelihood method with the aid of moments matching. The numerical experiments make use of both simulated and actual data compiled by the Fish Pool ASA. Data on both the Fish Pool’s forwards and Norwegian T-bill yields were additionally used in the MFM’s implementation. Findings Using simulated data sets, the MSM estimation gives more accurate results than the MFM estimation in terms of the norm in ℓ2 between the “true” and “computed” parameter estimates and significantly lower standard errors. With actual data sets used to evaluate the forecast values, both approaches have similar performances based on the error analysis. Under some metrics balancing goodness of fit and model complexity, the MFM outperforms the MSM. Originality/value With the aid of simulated and observed data sets examined in this paper, insights are gained concerning the appropriateness, as well as the benefits and weaknesses of the two proposed approaches. The modelling and estimation methodologies serve as prelude to reliable frameworks that will support the pricing and risk management of derivative contracts on fish price evolution, which creates price risk transfer mechanisms from the fisheries/aquaculture sector to the financial industry.

… animal protein while reducing pressure on wild fish stocks. In the Mediterranean region, … an open and organized evaluation between structural econometric models (VECM and robust …

… prices in export markets and limit competition in the local market from fish product imports. … Key species outlook Lobster Between 2006 and 2015 global lobster production increased …

… Developed countries continue to dominate world imports of fish and fisheries products. In 2012 developed countries accounted for around 73 per cent of global fisheries product imports …

… Quantitative modeling of fish supply, demand and trade is a useful tool for analyzing recent … equilibrium model for disaggregated analysis of fish supply, demand, and trade. The …

… supply–demand model. Simulations show trends in fish supply that fail to appear in either supply–demand … dynamics in model B; hence only comparisons of changes in equilibrium are …

Significance Recent years have witnessed strenuous ongoing debate about the sustainability of many commercial fisheries. Here we apply commonly accepted principles of fishery science to consider the impact of price flexibility on long-term fishery sustainability in an era of increasing demand due to population increase and rising economic expectations. We apply this model to two commercial oceanic fisheries (cod and pollock) to demonstrate that harvest and price statistics that are commonly available for commercial fisheries can be used to diagnose the degree to which a given fishery has been overharvested. More importantly, the same heuristic can also be used to identify plausible targets for fishery rehabilitation and evaluate the effectiveness of alternative policy options to achieve those goals. There is growing awareness of the need for fishery management policies that are robust to changing environmental, social, and economic pressures. Here we use conventional bioeconomic theory to demonstrate that inherent biological constraints combined with nonlinear supply−demand relationships can generate threshold effects due to harvesting. As a result, increases in overall demand due to human population growth or improvement in real income would be expected to induce critical transitions from high-yield/low-price fisheries to low-yield/high-price fisheries, generating severe strains on social and economic systems as well as compromising resource conservation goals. As a proof of concept, we show that key predictions of the critical transition hypothesis are borne out in oceanic fisheries (cod and pollock) that have experienced substantial increase in fishing pressure over the past 60 y. A hump-shaped relationship between price and historical harvest returns, well demonstrated in these empirical examples, is particularly diagnostic of fishery degradation. Fortunately, the same heuristic can also be used to identify reliable targets for fishery restoration yielding optimal bioeconomic returns while safely conserving resource abundance.

… Supply is considered static in a long-term balance in fishing effort. In the production factors, … in Indonesia using the supply and demand model. In terms of demand, fish consumption is …

Aquaculture plays an increasingly important role in meeting the rising global demand for fish fuelled by economic and demographic growth. However, in many middle-income countries, aquaculture is constrained by rising labour costs, limited input supply, environmental concerns, and infectious diseases. In this paper, we developed a multi-species, multi-sector equilibrium model and applied it to the fishery sector of Egypt, a leading aquaculture producer in Africa, to examine these barriers. Projection results show that rising wage rates would slow down the growth of labour-intensive aquaculture compared to those that use relatively less labour. The demand for feed, seed inputs and water use for aquaculture would substantially increase. The results also show that disease outbreaks would possibly affect production sectors via output reduction and also consumers via increases in fish price. Our findings suggest that stabilising the prices of feed and seed, investments in disease control and input-use efficiency improvement technologies, including water use, are important while the overall effectiveness of tax instruments is modest. Though calibrated to Egypt, our approach can be applied to other middle-size national aquaculture industries.

… Finally, since fixed-price models are designed to estimate the … final demand, they are limited in their applicability to supply-side shocks as in the present study where the supply of fish is …

… governing the abalone demand, supply, and price. It was found that the supply behavior (catch-price… to the bioeconomic model of the backward-bending supply curve for fisheries, due to …

… model (HÐ T model) and the partial adjustment model (PAM). The HÐ T model is the ®rst dynamic demand model … In the case of the consumer, the equilibrium values are the quantities …

… system is the subject, we have developed a specific supply—demand model. Such a … built a model that couples (1) the economic equilibrium between production systems selling on …

… fish demand analysis through the development of a model of the disaggregate demand for fish in … ) policy should therefore be based on the demand-supply balance in the market. …