水贫困 长江流域

As a basic natural and strategic resource, water is of great significance to the sustainable development of economies and societies. Owing to population growth, industrialization, the acceleration of urbanization, and global warming, water poverty is gradually increasing in some parts of the world. Effectively assessing water poverty from different dimensions is still a serious challenge for global water resources planning. This paper establishes a framework of multidimensional water poverty (MWP) from six dimensions: water management, water technology, water assets, water welfare, water resources, and water environment. The measurement model of MWP is built based on the Back Propagation Neural Network (BPNN), and the Spatial Correlation Analysis tool is used to visualize the spatial effects of MWP. The Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB) was used as a case study and the main factors affecting the MWP of the YREB were determined by the Geodetector. When analyzing the results the following observations were made: (1) In terms of time distribution, the level of MWP in the YREB has gradually increased, and the poverty gap between the upper reaches, as well as the middle and lower reaches, shows an increasing trend. (2) With respect to spatial distribution, there is a continuously increasing agglomeration effect that shows a gradient-increasing distribution pattern of "West-Central-East." (3) The MWP in the YREB is mainly affected by these indicators in the three dimensions consisting of water resources, water technology, and water management. Specifically, R&D expenditure as a percentage of GDP, the proportion of water-saving irrigation area in the cultivable land area, the urban daily wastewater treatment capacity, the land surface water resources per capita, and the groundwater resources per capita play an important role in the MWP. Based on the above findings, targeted policy recommendations are proposed to alleviate the MWP in the YREB.

Under the influence of climate change and human activities, water scarcity and uneven spatial distribution have become critical factors constraining societal development and threatening ecological security. Accurately assessing changes in blue and green water resources (BW and GW) caused by human activities can reveal the actual situation of water scarcity. However, previous research often overlooked the calibration of GW and human water usage, and it rarely delved into the primary human factors leading to water scarcity and potential impact mechanisms. Therefore, based on the PCR-GLOBWB model that considers human impacts, and with reasonable calibration of B/GW and human water usage, hydrological processes were simulated under both human-influenced and natural conditions. A comprehensive assessment of the impact of human activities on BW and GW was conducted. The results show that: (1) BW and GW exhibit a spatial pattern of increasing from northwest to southeast in the basin. From 1961 to 2020, the proportion of BW showed an upward trend, while GW was decreasing; (2) The impact of human activities on changes in water resources is mainly concentrated in the midstream and dowmstream of the basin. Due to human influences, the green water flow (GWF) increased by 3-24.4 mm, and the BW volume increased by 67.2-146.4 mm. However, the green water storage (GWS) decreased by 5.6-75.4 mm; (3) The impact of human activities on blue water scarcity (BWscarcity) is significantly greater than green water scarcity (GWscarcity). The worsening of GWscarcity does not exceed 0.2, while areas where BW reaches significant deterioration (BWscarcity > 1.5) account for 1.3 %, 9.8 %, and 17 % of the upstream, midstream and downstream, respectively. (4) Irrigation activities are the main factor causing water resource scarcity. In the future, it is important to reasonably develop the potential for GW utilization and optimize BW management measures to address water resource crises.

… However, water resources are dynamic, and the linkages between water scarcity and poverty incorporate complex cause-effect relationships. Water poverty should thus be addressed in …

Securing water supply in the face of increasing water scarcity is one important challenge faced by humanity in sustainable development. Inter-basin water transfer is widely applied to provide water supply security in regions where water demand exceeds water availability. However, the effect of inter-basin water transfer on alleviating water scarcity and its inequality is poorly understood especially at the national scale. Based on a newly compiled database of inter-basin water transfer projects in China, here we report a first national assessment of their effect on securing water supply in different basins. We developed a number of indices to facilitate quantifying the effect of water transfer on water scarcity and its inequality. The capacity of inter-basin transfer projects has been steadily increased, which achieved ~48.5 billion m3 yr-1 by 2016 (equivalent to ~8% of the national water use). The results indicate that water transfer has impacted water supply of 43 sub-basins out of a total of 76 sub-basins, but it hardly changes a basin's water scarcity level (e.g., from water scarcity to low water scarcity). Approximately three quarters of people in China are affected by water transfer. More than a half of the national population (705 million) benefit from alleviated water scarcity, leading to the inequality coefficient reduced from 0.64 under natural water availability condition to 0.59 considering water transfer in 2016. However, 357 million people in water transfer source basins are subject to increased water scarcity, in which ~21% are from water stressed sub-basins. This study reveals for the first time water transfer induced water scarcity and inequality change across sub-basins in China, and highlights the challenges to secure water supply across basins.

Despite being one of the most abundant water resources globally, the Yangtze River Basin (YRB) region is facing substantial risks aggravated by climatic and anthropogenic changes. …

Water security is of great significance in social development, ecosystem sustainability, and environmental management. The Upper Yangtze River Basin (UYRB), which feeds >150 million people, is faced with aggravating water security risks due to more frequent hydrometeorological extremes and increasing human water withdrawals under a changing environment. Based on five RCP-SSP scenarios, this study systematically evaluated the spatiotemporal evolution patterns of water security in the UYRB under future climatic and societal changes. The future runoff was projected using Watergap global hydrological model (WGHM) under different Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios and hydrological drought was further identified by the run theory. The water withdrawals were predicted based on the recently developed shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs). Then, a comprehensive risk index (CRI) for water security was proposed combining the degree of water stress and natural hydrological drought. The results show that the future annual average runoff across the UYRB is projected to increase, and hydrological drought tends to be more severe, especially in the upper and middle reaches. Dominated by water withdrawals in the industry sector, the future water stress in all sub-regions is estimated to increase substantially, with the largest change ratio of WSI in the middle future spatially ranging from 64.5 % to 301.5 % (66.0 % to 314.1 %) under RCP2.6 (RCP8.5). Based on the spatiotemporal variation of CRI, the UYRB is projected to face more severe comprehensive risks for water security in the middle and far future periods, and hotspot sub-regions are identified as Tuo River and Fu River, which are densely populated and economically prosperous, threatening regional sustainable social-economic development. These findings highlight the urgent need for adaptive countermeasures of water resources administration in response to more severe water security risks in the future UYRB.

… In five megacities in the Yangtze River basin, Chang et al. … of water poverty was developed for assessing water security in … basic data with the concept of water poverty. Among them, the “…

The process of urbanization, which leads to increased population density, changes in land use patterns, and heightened demand for industrial and domestic water use, exacerbates the contradiction between the supply and demand of water resources. This study examines the discrepancies between the supply and demand of water resources amidst urbanization, utilizing data from 110 cities within the Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB) spanning from 2012 to 2021. The research employs the projection pursuit clustering model and the Dagum Gini coefficient method to evaluate the developmental status of water resources. While the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region maintains a leading position with a water resources development score of 9.827 in 2023, there is a 2.2% increase in intra-regional disparity. The water resources development score for the City Cluster in the Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River (CCRYR) has experienced a decline, from 8.263 in 2012 to 8.016 in 2021; however, a reduction in intra-regional disparities has been observed since the implementation of the 2016 Outline of the Yangtze River Economic Belt Development Plan (YREBP), which suggests the policy’s efficacy. The Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Zone (CCEZ), despite its initially lower level of development, has demonstrated significant growth, with scores rising from 7.036 in 2012 to 7.347 in 2021. Collectively, the water resources development in the YREB exhibits an upward trend, yet the development remains uneven. The CCRYR shows a catching-up effect because of the YREBP, and the differences in other regions are widening. The research results provide decision-making support for water resources planning and management, and are of great significance in promoting the sustainable use of water resources.

Abstract Having intensive economic development and rapid urbanization, the Yangtze River basin, namely the heart of China’s prosperity, has faced challenges in the accompanying deterioration of water security. How to closely inspect the features and development of water security for the major cities in the basin and to compare the water security conditions between the major cities at the basin scope is a keystone to better support water management practice in the cities as well as regions. Hence, this study refined the previous framework by applying 19 indicators to describe the conditions of resource, infrastructure, waterway, efficiency, risk, and capacity and then integrated the data-driven weighting approach, the Criteria Importance Through Inter-criteria Correlation (CRITIC) method, to objectively evaluate the development and characteristics of water security of the megacities in the Yangtze River basin, i.e., Shanghai, Nanjing, Wuhan, Chongqing, and Chengdu, during 2011–2017. Based on the aggregated scores, Chongqing had the best overall water security condition (0.696) in 2017, followed by Chengdu (0.613), Shanghai (0.581), Nanjing (0.496), and Wuhan (0.471). During 2011–2017, Chongqing and Shanghai had a greater improvement in the water security condition, while Wuhan had the least. From a basin perspective, the upstream megacities had the advantage of their water availability and depletion conditions, river quality, pollutant discharge, government’s support of water affairs, and the societal investment in water conservancy. On the other hand, the middle- and downstream megacities had shown the better performance of the water affordability, the density of the sewage network, and water intensity. The sensitivity analysis detected the average of the standard variations of the score changes as 2.03% in the context of different indicator sets and thus assured the outcome robustness. This study enhances the assessment frameworks, facilitates the applications of temporal and spatial comparative evaluation of water security conditions on city and river basin level, and identifies the policy gaps for enhancing water management in the magacities and the basins.

… water vulnerability. This paper improves understanding of the status and trends of water resources in the Yangtze River Basin. … driving forces of water scarcity. Integrated assessment of …

… The Yangtze River Basin (YRB) is a region of vital economic and ecological importance in China, facing challenges of water scarcity and flooding underpinned by complex, yet …

… water-related aspects, as well as a conceptual framework to organize all indicators and variables. Firstly, we develop water poverty … of the Yangtze River, with a dense water network and …

… water to other cities, thereby exacerbating local water stress of these cities. The inter-city virtual water flows within the Yangtze River … the inequality of urban water scarcity among cities …

… water consumption growth. Under climate change and population growth, the population under water stress (water … for understanding the status of water resources in the UYR and offers …

Abstract. The increasing conflicts for water resources between upstream and downstream regions appeal to chronological insight across the world. While the negative consequence of downstream water scarcity has been widely analyzed, the quantification of influence of upstream water use on downstream water scarcity has received little attention. Here non-anthropologically intervened runoff (natural runoff) was first reconstructed in upstream, middle stream and downstream regions in China's 12 large basins in the 1970s to 2000s time period using the Fu–Budyko framework, and then compared to the observed data to obtain the developmental trajectories of water scarcity, including the ratio of water use to availability (WTA) and the per capita water availability (FI; Falkenmark Index) on a decadal scale. Furthermore, a contribution analysis was used to investigate the main drivers of water scarcity trajectories in those basins. The results show that China as a whole has experienced a rapid increase of WTA stress with surface water use rapidly increasing from 161 billion cubic meters (12 % of natural runoff) in the 1970s to 256 billion cubic meters (18 %) in the 2000s, with approximately 65 % increase occurring in northern China. In the 2000s, the increase of upstream WTA stress and the decrease of downstream WTA stress occurred simultaneously for semi-arid and arid basins, which was caused by the increasing upstream water use and the consequent decreasing surface water use in downstream regions. The influence of upstream surface water use on downstream water scarcity was less than 10 % in both WTA and FI for humid and semi-humid basins during the study period, but with an average of 26 % in WTA and 32 % in FI for semi-arid and arid basins. The ratio increased from 10 % in the 1970s to 37 % in the 2000s for WTA and from 22 % in the 1980s to 37 % in the 2000s for FI. The contribution analysis shows that the WTA contribution greatly increases in the 2000s mainly in humid and semi-humid basins, while it decreases mainly in semi-arid and arid basins. The trajectories of China's water scarcity are closely related to socioeconomic development and water policy changes, which provide valuable lessons and experiences for global water resources management.

… driver of water scarcity in most basins, while upstream runoff influence wet season scarcity in … , this study identifies basin-specific variability in water scarcity drivers, and highlighting the …

… posed by water scarcity. More areas in the YRB are affected by water shortages than … During the growing season, vegetation is primarily affected by water shortage, although in …

Grain production consumes a large amount of water and is affected by the degree of water scarcity and participation in the grain trade in various regions. The grain trade has changed the food security risks in regions where grain exports and imports. Therefore, it is crucial to consider regional water scarcity to understand food security risks from the grain trade network. Here, we construct a new framework for measuring regional food security risks associated with water scarcity, grain production, and grain trade based on a cross-city grain trade network combined with virtual water flows to evaluate the regional food security risks in the Yangtze River Delta region (YRD) of China in 2017. The results show that under the current domestic grain trade pattern in China, the YRD and its four provincial-level administrative regions are in a net grain import state. The grain trade within the YRD is concentrated in exports from the two major grain-producing areas of Anhui and Jiangsu to Zhejiang and Shanghai, especially from northern Jiangsu to southeastern Zhejiang. The net import results of virtual blue water in most cities indicate that the YRD has shifted its water resource pressure to other grain exporting regions in China, with Shanghai and Zhejiang being the greatest beneficiaries. Extreme risk only exists in Shanghai, and severe and moderate risks are concentrated in Jiangsu. The current grain trade has reduced the overall food security risk in the YRD by 1.3 % but increased the risks in Shanghai and Zhejiang by 2.1 % and 0.8 % respectively. This study highlights the potential risks that excessive production of food in water-scarce areas in the grain trade system may bring to a stable food supply, providing useful information for a comprehensive understanding of the food and water security situation and for future trade-offs.

The Yangtze River, the largest river in China, has been facing major challenges in massive flooding and eco-environmental health over the past decades. Sustainable socioeconomic development in the Yangtze River Basin depends on water and ecosystem security. This overview addresses eco-water security under the changing environment of the Yangtze River Basin. Looking forward to a healthy Yangtze River in the future, there are still uncertainties regarding how to assess and wisely manage the Yangtze River through a systematic, integrated approach applied to multiple dimensions, water, biodiversity, ecological services, and resilience, for the sustainable development of ecosystems and human beings. The Yangtze Simulator, an integrated river basin model powered by artificial intelligence and interdisciplinary science, is introduced and discussed, and it will serve as a robust tool for good governance of the Yangtze River Basin.

Abstract The looming impacts of changing climate and ever increasing water and energy demands make it important to quantify expected water and energy availabilities and develop strategies to mitigate expected shortfalls. Keeping these aspects in mind, in this paper, hydrological modeling is performed on the Upper Yangtze River Basin (UYRB) to simulate the inflows to the Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR) based on the Hydrologic Engineering Center’s Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC-HMS) model and a Multiple-input single-output Linear Systematic Model (MLSM). These models are derived for historical (1960–2005) and future (near: 2021–2050 and far: 2061–2090) time periods using bias corrected climate projections from an ensemble of 6 RCMs available through the COordinated Regional Downscaling EXperiment in East Asia (CORDEX-EA) under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5. Simulating with and without snow, hydrological responses to both the historical and future climates are fed into a daily reservoir simulation model where the operation of the TGR follows the designed operating rule curves which can be regarded as a standard operating policy (SOP). The results indicate marginal reduction in mean annual precipitation, inflow and hydropower generation and mean hydropower generation reliability for the future scenarios under RCP 8.5 with the decreases for far future being more prominent than those for near future. The inflow decreases strongly reduce the hydropower generation of the TGR in November and May and have limited impact on other months because of the regulation ability of the SOP. Hydropower generation responses to extreme variations in annual inflow are projected to aggravate the water and energy security stress of the TGR. The without snow projections alter the inflow patterns as well as the hydropower generation patterns of the TGR with respect to the with snow projections and are likely to have positive impact on the water impounding and hydropower generation for both the historical and future time periods.

… the water scarcity and resource depletion in the North China Plain, the `breadbasket' of China. A projection of water … in the Yangtze River basin and they receive a large inflow from the …

Abstract Drought is a multifaceted natural hazard that occurs in virtually any component of the hydrological cycle. Drought monitoring and prediction from multiple viewpoints are essential for reliable risk planning and management. This study presents a joint prognosis of meteorological (M-drought), hydrological (H-drought) and agricultural (A-drought) droughts for the period 2021–2100 over the Yangtze River basin (YRB). The prognosis uses an ensemble of 10 models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) for two future emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Precipitation, runoff, and soil moisture are used to quantify M-drought, H-drought, and A-drought, respectively. The results indicate that the raw CMIP5 multimodel ensemble for the YRB generally overestimates precipitation while underestimating temperature. The precipitation, runoff, and soil moisture are all projected to increase in the coming decades at the spatial scale of the entire YRB. Moreover, the magnitudes of drought shift from moderate and severe in the past (1954–2013) to extreme and exceptional in the future. The durations of drought are anticipated to prolong in the future, especially for the A-droughts. A-droughts are projected to be more severe than M- and H-droughts. Furthermore, the headwater areas and the areas surrounding the intersection of Sichuan, Guizhou and Chongqing are anticipated to increase in A-drought severity. These findings provide insight to inform drought planning and management in the YRB, and improve our understanding of the ability of precipitation, runoff, and soil moisture to describe droughts under global warming scenarios.

Inadequate water quality can mean that water is unsuitable for a variety of human uses, thus exacerbating freshwater scarcity. Previous large-scale water scarcity assessments mostly focused on the availability of sufficient freshwater quantity for providing supplies, but neglected the quality constraints on water usability. Here we report a comprehensive nationwide water scarcity assessment in China, which explicitly includes quality requirements for human water uses. We highlight the necessity of incorporating water scarcity assessment at multiple temporal and geographic scales. Our results show that inadequate water quality exacerbates China’s water scarcity, which is unevenly distributed across the country. North China often suffers water scarcity throughout the year, whereas South China, despite sufficient quantities, experiences seasonal water scarcity due to inadequate quality. Over half of the population are affected by water scarcity, pointing to an urgent need for improving freshwater quantity and quality management to cope with water scarcity. The impact on inadequate water quality on water scarcity is unclear. Here the authors quantify China’s present-day water scarcity and show that inadequate water quality exacerbates China’s water scarcity, which is unevenly distributed across the country.

… which all users have reliable access to a safe water supply. Water insecurity arises from changes in the supply, demand, and/or the institutions that determine access to safe water (…

… factors that give rise to the risk of water insecurity in Shanghai. There is an extensive and … This is followed by a discussion of the trends in water availability in the Yangtze catchment, …

… of ecosystems while providing opportunities for diversifying livelihoods and supporting a green transformation across catchment communities of the vast river basin of the Yangtze River. …

… lake levels and amplify regional water insecurity. Poyang Lake, … responds to the changed catchment inflows, we propose a … and the Yangtze River, this study selected the water level at …

Summary Virtual water trade and regional specialization can enhance water security, yet their drivers and impacts remain unquantified. In this study, we propose a system-based modeling framework to trace virtual water transfer patterns, identify intercity network relationships, and quantify the primary socioeconomic factors driving water footprint dynamics in the Yangtze river delta urban agglomeration. Our analysis reveals that the total water footprint of this region decreased by 6% between 2010 and 2020. Water-scarce cities such as Yancheng, Yangzhou, and Tai'zhou in Jiangsu province serve as major production centers for water-intensive goods, accounting for nearly half of the region’s total virtual water exports. Changes in water use intensity, production structure, and final demand composition are identified as critical contributors to water footprint reductions in cities across Zhejiang and Anhui provinces. These findings underscore the necessity of cross-regional cooperation to address inefficient water resource allocation and mitigate unintended increases in water stress.

With the acceleration of urbanization in China, water resources have become a key factor restricting regional sustainable development. Current research primarily examines the temporal or spatial variations in the water resources ecological footprint (WREF), with limited emphasis on the integration of both spatial and temporal scales. In this study, we collected the data and information from the 2005–2022 Statistical Yearbook and Water Resources Bulletin of the Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration (YRDUA), and calculated evaluation indicators: WREF, water resources ecological carrying capacity (WRECC), water resources ecological pressure (WREP), and water resources ecological surplus and deficit (WRESD). We primarily analyzed the temporal and spatial variation in the per capita WREF and used the method of Geodetector to explore factors driving its temporal and spatial variation in the YRDUA. The results showed that: (1) From 2005 to 2022, the per capita WREF (total water, agricultural water, and industrial water) of the YRDUA generally showed fluctuating declining trends, while the per capita WREF of domestic water and ecological water showed obvious growth. (2) The per capita WREF and the per capita WRECC were in the order of Jiangsu Province > Anhui Province > Shanghai City > Zhejiang Province. The spatial distribution of the per capita WREF was similar to those of the per capita WRECC, and most areas effectively consume water resources. (3) The explanatory power of the interaction between factors was greater than that of a single factor, indicating that the spatiotemporal variation in the per capita WREF of the YRDUA was affected by the combination of multiple factors and that there were regional differences in the major factors in the case of secondary metropolitan areas. (4) The per capita WREF of YRDUA was affected by natural resources, and the impact of the ecological condition on the per capita WREF increased gradually over time. The impact factors of secondary metropolitan areas also clearly changed over time. Our results showed that the ecological situation of per capita water resources in the YRDUA is generally good, with obvious spatial and temporal differences.

Drought is a major natural disaster in China, severely affecting agricultural output and the ecological environment. Timely and accurate vegetation drought monitoring is essential for early warning and ensuring agricultural production, as well as ecological security. However, assessing the accuracy and seasonal applicability of vegetation drought monitoring models remains challenging due to the lack of clearly defined ground-truth data. To address this issue, this study integrates soil moisture (SM) with a criterion reflecting the temporal response of vegetation growth, based on the vegetation’s response to moisture stress, thereby deriving a reliable ground-truth reference for validation. A vegetation water stress response-driven vegetation drought verification approach (VWSR-VDVA) is proposed, and a case study in the Yangtze River Basin (YRB) was done, with surface water availability-temperature index (SWATI), Process-Cognizant Vegetation Drought Model (PCVDM), temperature vegetation dryness index (TVDI), and standardized SM index (SSI) across different seasons from 2000 to 2022, for evaluation test. The results show that PCVDM achieved the highest overall accuracy (OA), particularly in spring and autumn. SWATI tended to underestimate vegetation drought zones (VDZs) during early wetting or drought recovery due to its sensitivity to short-term SM variations and globally derived drought thresholds, but performed best in summer. SSI and TVDI generally overestimated VDZs due to coarse spatial resolution, fixed drought thresholds, and inadequate representation of vegetation response diversity. These findings are generally consistent with results from conventional correlation analyses. However, station-based validation often fails in specific areas—such as near-water areas, urban green spaces, and cultivated land—where vegetation conditions are influenced by artificial irrigation or localized water supplies, weakening the reliability of meteorological indicators alone. In contrast, the VWSR-VDVA captures the dynamic covariation between vegetation condition and water availability, effectively overcoming these limitations. It enables more accurate drought identification in heterogeneous environments. Overall, the VWSR-VDVA offers a more precise representation of vegetation drought conditions and provides valuable insights for optimizing drought monitoring approaches. It also lays a theoretical foundation for the development of future drought early warning and monitoring systems.

… Aqueduct Water Risk framework to analyze the baseline water stress and groundwater stress … The lower reaches of the Yangtze River Basin had the largest amount of water withdrawal (…

… water for the production of traded products. Here, we explore whether such water redistributions can help mitigate water stress in … 44.8 Gm 3 water from the Yangtze River Basin to the …

In this study, we examine the spatial and temporal characteristics of water stress in China for the historical (1971–2010) and the future (2021–2050) periods using a multimodel simulation approach. Three water stress indices (WSIs), that is, the ratios of water withdrawals to locally generated runoff (WSIR), to natural streamflow (WSIQ), and to natural streamflow minus upstream consumptive water withdrawals (WSIC), are used for the assessment. At the basin level, WSIR estimates generally match the reported data and indicate severe water stress in most northern basins. At the grid cell level, the WSIs show distinct spatial patterns of water stress wherein WSIR (WSIQ) estimates higher (lower) water stress compared to WSIC. Based on the WSIC estimates, 368 million people (nearly one third of the total population) are affected by severe water stress annually during the historical period, while WSIR and WSIQ suggest 595 and 340 million, respectively. Future projections of WSIC indicate that more than 600 million people (43% of the total) might be affected by severe water stress, and half of China's land area would be exposed to stress. The found aggravating water stress conditions could be partly attributed to the elevated future water withdrawals. This study emphasizes the necessity of considering explicit upstream and downstream relations with respect to both water availability and water use in water stress assessment and calls for more attention to increasing levels of water stress in China in the coming decades.

… Water Supply–Demand Index (SSDI), based on the water … the drought characteristics in the Yangtze River Basin (YRB). … located in the lower reaches of the Yangtze River. (3) Over the …

… The results showed that: The WEF stress in the YRD increased … , the stress of energy was still the dominant stress on the WEF system. Water stress was stable overall, while food stress …

Abstract Riverine sediment flux is a crucial proxy influencing channel morphology, biogeochemical processes, and riverine ecosystems. However, recent climate change and multiple anthropogenic activities have substantially altered the sediment regimes of the world’s rivers. On a basis of the “multiple double mass curves” method, this study selected the Jialing River (JR) basin as a case study to distinguish the relative impacts of climate change, land-use change, and damming on changes in the runoff and sediment flux over the past 60 years. The results showed that the sediment fluxes in the JR basin drastically decreased by 57–77% from the baseline period (1950s–1984) to the post-change period (1985–2017) mainly due to damming (60–75%), climate change (5–30%), and revegetation (10–20%). The runoff in the JR basin also exhibited a reduction (12–22%) likely because of the joint impacts of a reduction in precipitation and the restoration of vegetation. Although the 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake (M = 7.9) increased the short-term sediment fluxes, its impact on the long-term sediment fluxes in the downstream areas of the JR basin was limited as a result of the buffering effect of the thousands of constructed reservoirs. The decreased sediment fluxes in the JR basin benefit the life expectancy of the Three Gorges Reservoir (the world’s largest hydropower plant), but the reduced runoff can exacerbate water stress. The findings of our study have important implications for better management of water resources, sediment fluxes, and reservoir sedimentation not only for the JR basin, but also for the Three Gorges Reservoir.

… water scarcity and agricultural development capability. Based on this index, the regional differences in agricultural water poverty in … : The agricultural water poverty index proposed in this …

… The primary (major) continental watersheds, such as the Mississippi River, the Rhine River, or the Yangtze River, comprise sub-watersheds, and sub-watersheds themselves contain …

… Thus the aims of this paper are to revise the method of the calculation of Water Poverty Index (… Shanghai is located in the downstream of Yangtze River and the Lake Tai basin, and has …

The Yangtze River Economic Delta (YRED) faces inequality in water use in large proportions due to rapid industrialization. This study adopted the Gini coefficient and Global Moran’s index to calculate inequality, its spatial spread and water use efficiency of cities in the YRED and categorized them into types based on the spatial spread of inequality. In general, inequality is reducing, but water use efficiency is poor. Inequality was rated 0–1; zero being the highest equality while 1 indicates the highest inequality. There is relatively high inequality (0.4–0.5) in Shanghai, Suzhou and Hefei. Most cities (20), however, showed equality (below 0.2). Nine (9) cities showed relative equality (0.2–0.3), while Wuxi, Bengbu and Zhenjiang were neutral (0.3–0.4). No city scored above 0.5. Water use efficiency in the majority of cities was poor. Only 11 out of 35 cities scored more than 50% efficiency. Poor irrigation, income and industrial water demand are the factors driving inefficiency and inequality. The categorization of cities into groups produced nine city types according to the spatial disposition of inequality. A combined effort to formulate policies targeting improved water use efficiency, reduced industrial consumption and improved irrigation, tailored towards the specific situation of each city type, would eliminate inequality.

The risk of drought in the Yangtze River Delta Region (YRDR) was assessed using the method of natural disaster risk assessment. Based on the index of disaster risk, the assessment results of risk elements such as drought hazard and vulnerability were calculated in the YRDR. The division of relative drought risk levels in the YRDR was produced at the scale of county (city, district) and township. The results indicated that the areas of highest hazard of drought are located in the northern area of the YRDR. Areas with the greatest vulnerability of drought included Shanghai, Jiaxing, Wuxi, and Hangzhou. The highest risks of drought were mainly distributed in the north of the YRDR; the proportion of slightly high and extremely high risk areas in Shanghai, Nantong, Zhenjiang, Yangzhou, and Taizhou (Jiangsu province) is over 95%. The lowest-risk areas included the southeast coastal area of the YRDR, especially in Hangzhou, and Taizhou (Zhejiang province), where the proportion of slightly high and extremely high risk areas is below 5%. Based on this drought risk assessment, it is critical to establish a drought assessment system including both guarding against and addressing drought.

… drought risk assessment system covering the subsystems of drought hazard, vulnerability, and exposure. A comprehensive evaluation of drought risk in the Yangtze River Basin was …

The Yangtze River Delta (YRD), as China’s socioeconomic core, faces compound pressures from water scarcity, pollution, and ecosystem degradation, with water ecological security emerging as a critical bottleneck for sustainable development. This study aims to construct a comprehensive evaluation system and identify key constraints to provide scientific guidance for urban agglomeration water security management. We innovatively established a four-dimensional evaluation framework encompassing water resource security, water environment security, water ecosystem health, and economic benefit management, employing the TOPSIS model with entropy-CRITIC combined weighting to assess water ecological security across four YRD provinces from 2010 to 2023. Results reveal a three-phase evolutionary pattern with provincial gradient distribution, exposing a “high economic–low ecological” resource curse effect in megacities; water resource security subsystem holds the highest weight (35.23%), indicating the synergistic role of economic regulation and natural restoration in system resilience; and dominant obstacles have shifted from industrial pollution to compound pressures including ecological water deficit, agricultural non-point pollution, and lagging water-saving technologies. This study proposes differentiated zoning strategies and cross-regional collaboration mechanisms, providing theoretical and methodological references for water security management in high-density urban agglomerations with global implications for analogous regions.

With rapid development of the economy and urbanization, water-related environmental risk in urban areas has increased and hindered social-economic development and ecological protection. The assessment of water-related environmental risk is of vital importance to the sustainable development of the Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB). This study constructed a comprehensive assessment index system for water-related environmental risks from three perspectives: the hazards posed by risk sources, the effectiveness of the control mechanisms, and the vulnerability of the risk receptors. Employing the entropy method, the water-related environmental risks of cities in the YREB from 2000 to 2015 were comprehensively evaluated, and the obstacle degree model was used to analyze the associated influencing factors of the water-related environmental risk. The results showed that the overall level of water-related environmental risk of the YREB presented a significant spatial gradient characterized by “downstream risk > midstream risk > upstream risk”. The areas with higher risks were mainly distributed in the Yangtze River Delta in the downstream area, and Wuhan and Changsha in the midstream area, where their risk receptors were highly vulnerable, and efforts should be made to improve the resilience of these areas. In terms of temporal change, the average value of the comprehensive water-related environmental risk of the YREB dropped from 0.493 in 2005 to 0.392 in 2015, with a reduction rate ranging from about 16.55 to 25.76%. The number of cities with medium-high to high risk had gradually decreased, and the number of cities with medium, medium-low, and low risk continued to increase. The water-related environmental risk of the YREB as a whole is in the transition stage from high risk level to medium and low risk level. Specifically, the hazards posed by risk sources had increased continually, and especially increased significantly in the midstream of the YREB; the effectiveness of risk control mechanisms had increased throughout the region, with downstream cities mainly having a high level of effectiveness; the areas with high vulnerability of the risk receptors were mainly concentrated in the Yangtze River Delta and showed an upward trend. Overall, the main source of water-related environmental risks and differences among the upstream, midstream and downstream cities had shifted from the hazards posed by risk sources to the effectiveness of risk control mechanisms and the vulnerability of the risk receptor. The main factors affecting the water-related environmental risk in the order of average obstacle degree were per capita GDP (34.43%), the number of beds per thousand people (18.70%) and the industrial structure height (15.55%). Therefore, promoting the adjustment of industrial structure, improving economic efficiency, developing the regional social economy, and improving and perfecting the construction of environmental protection infrastructure are effective ways to realize the mitigation and resolution of water-related environmental risks.

Abstract Understanding the nexus between food, energy, and water (FEW) systems is emerging as a critical area of study since federal research agencies in North America and Europe began highlighting the needs related to data collection/management, systems optimization, and opportunities for new technologies. Little information regarding FEW systems exists across Asia, including within the Yangtze River basin, despite having 1/15th of the world's population living within the basin and generating as much as 40% of the Chinese gross domestic product. This research provides a case study of FEW systems with analysis in the Yangtze River basin, showing the spatial and temporal variations in water availability/use, food production, and energy production. At a district-level scale in China, we integrated key Chinese data sets from multiple industrial, commercial, and agricultural sectors together with key land use and hydrologic information to evaluate the FEW parameters normalized to the land area of each district rather than the commonly used approach where FEW consumptive parameters are normalized to population (i.e., per capita). The results illustrated the types of data sets currently available within China to conduct FEW system analyses and identified districts that are net producers or dependents regarding food, energy, or water. The northeastern portion of the Yangtze River basin have several districts that are net negative relative to the amount of water that falls within the district boundaries versus all water uses plus evaporation, with the most stressed districts lacking as much as 0.5–1 m annually of equivalent rainfall per unit land area. The geospatial analysis concludes that policies to manage the FEW system cannot be considered for a single district alone, nor the Yangtze River watershed in its entirety, but instead needs to consider the interdependencies among districts and consider encouraging growth (agriculture, industry, or population) within more water-abundant regions.

ABSTRACT Water supply and conservation are essential ecosystem services in river basins and serve as key indicators of regional ecological health. The middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River (MLYR) constitute a world‐class urban agglomeration and an ecological security barrier, playing a critical role in promoting high‐quality economic development and sustaining regional ecosystem stability. However, understanding of the multi‐scale spatial characteristics of water supply and conservation functions, the drivers of their long‐term variations and the delineation of functional zones in this region remains limited. In this study, the InVEST (Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs) model was employed to quantify water supply and conservation in the MLYR from 1985 to 2024, followed by attribution analyses. The main findings are as follows: (1) Between 1985 and 2024, both water supply and conservation initially recovered but subsequently declined. The average annual water supply was approximately 685.18 × 10 9 m 3 , while the average annual water conservation was about 51.38 × 10 9 m 3 . High‐value areas for water supply are mainly distributed in the central and southern regions, whereas high‐value areas for water conservation are largely concentrated in the southeastern region. Dongting Lake and Poyang Lake serve as the principal basins supporting both water supply and conservation functions. (2) Areas with relatively high water supply functionality accounted for the largest spatial proportion (41.98%), primarily located in the southern regions of the Poyang Lake Basin, the Huai River Basin and the Tai Lake Basin. (3) Annual precipitation, mean annual temperature and land use types were the main drivers of spatial variation in water supply, whereas water conservation was more strongly influenced by annual precipitation, land use types and elevation. These findings underscore the need for region‐specific strategies that integrate climate and land use considerations to enhance ecosystem service resilience in rapidly urbanising river basins.

… distribution relationship between variable factors and result factors by combining spatial differentiation theory with GIS spatial analysis technology. The basic idea is that … Data availability …

… Therefore, taking the Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB) as a case study, this paper firstly … based on the coupling system of water resources-water environment-society-economy. …

… vegetation and climate data from 2001 to 2023. We employed XGBoost with SHAP analysis to disentangle the drivers of spatial heterogeneity. Results reveal strong spatial contrasts: …

… (SNA) method is used to explore characteristics of the spatial network correlation. The … spatial network structure, the overall network density of spatial correlation of agricultural water …

… provide a basis for the differentiated improvement strategies for MC, TC, and LLC, offering valuable insights for the sustainable development of cities in similar river basins globally. …

In this study, we analyze 32 yr of terrestrial water storage (TWS) data obtained from the Interim Reanalysis Data (ERA-Interim) and Noah model from the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS-Noah) for the period 1979 to 2010. The accuracy of these datasets is validated using 26 yr (1979–2004) of runoff data from the Yichang gauging station and comparing them with 32 yr of independent precipitation data obtained from the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre Full Data Reanalysis Version 6 (GPCC) and NOAA’s PRECipitation REConstruction over Land (PREC/L). Spatial and temporal analysis of the TWS data shows that TWS in the Yangtze River basin has decreased significantly since the year 1998. The driest period in the basin occurred between 2005 and 2010, and particularly in the middle and lower Yangtze reaches. The TWS figures changed abruptly to persistently high negative anomalies in the middle and lower Yangtze reaches in 2004. The year 2006 is identified as major inflection point, at which the system starts exhibiting a persistent decrease in TWS. Comparing these TWS trends with independent precipitation datasets shows that the recent decrease in TWS can be attributed mainly to a decrease in the amount of precipitation. Our findings are based on observations and modeling datasets and confirm previous results based on gauging station datasets.

Using panel data from 11 regions (9 provinces and two cities) in the Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB) during 2002–2017, the regional differences in and spatial characteristics of the green efficiency of water resources along the YREB were analyzed. The undesirable outputs slacks-based measure-data envelopment analysis, Malmquist index, and social network analysis models were employed. A dynamic panel using a system generalized method of moments model was established to empirically examine the main factors influencing green efficiency. The results show the following. First, temporally, green efficiency fluctuates while showing an overall decreasing trend; spatially, green efficiency generally decreases in this order: downstream, upstream, then midstream. Second, the change in the total factor productivity (TFP) index shows an overall increasing trend, with TFP improvement mainly attributable to technology. Third, green efficiency shows a significant spatial correlation. All provinces are in the spatial correlation network, and the network, as a whole, has strong stability. Finally, water resource endowment, water prices, government environmental control strength, and the water resources utilization structure have a significant impact on green efficiency.

… Even rarer are studies that incorporate both water quantity and quality in … of water supply–demand imbalance in the Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB), considering both water …

… Utilizing multi-source remote sensing data, FEWC resource … water production, carbon storage). Principal component analysis (PCA) was applied to the Yangtze River basin data to study …

… Inequality in water allocation and the shortage of water resources … -regional water system management. The impact of virtual water flows implied in inter-regional trade on multi-regional …

Inequality and polarization are terms usually used to describe the overall dispersion of income distribution and the phenomenon of a divided society with a disappearing middle class and increasing rich and poor populations. However, these terms have seldom been used in water sciences. In this paper, the concepts of inequality and polarization are employed to analyze the distribution of urban water use of different cities. Using for reference the conception of Gini coefficient, the EUWU (Equality of Urban Water Use) model is built to analyze the equality of urban water use. And, the PUWU (Polarization of Urban Water Use) model based on exponential functions, which can limit the index of polarization to the range (0, 1) effectively, is built to analyze the polarization of urban water use. Inequality and polarization of resident, industrial and commercial water use in 16 cities in the Yangtze River Delta, the fastest growing region of China, are evaluated using the EUWU model and PUWU model, respectively. The results show that inequality of residential, industrial and commercial water use has decreased by 6.5%, 11.2% and 8.4%, while the index of polarization has increased by 3.9%, 3.8% and 0.1% in Yangtze River Delta area from 2001 to 2006.

Urbanization is an engine of economic development, but this process is often constrained by increasingly scarce water resources. A model predicting the drag effect of water consumption on urbanization would be useful for future planning for sustainable water resource utilization and economic growth. Using panel data from 11 provinces in China’s Yangtze River economic belt (YREB) from 2000 to 2015, we apply Romer’s growth drag theory with spatial econometric models to quantitatively analyze the drag effect of water consumption on urbanization. The results show the following. (1) The drag effect of water consumption on urbanization has significant spatial correlation; the spatial Durbin model is the best model to calculate this spatial connection. (2) The spatial coefficient is 0.39 and the drag that is caused by water consumption on urbanization in the YREB is 0.574, which means that when spatial influences are considered, urbanization speed slows by 0.574% due to water consumption constraints. (3) Each region in the YREB has different water consumption patterns and structure; we further calculate each region’s water consumption drag on urbanization. We find that areas with high urbanization levels, like Shanghai (average 84.7%), have a lower water consumption drag effect (0.227), and they can avoid the “resource curse” of water resource constraints. However, some low-level urbanization provinces, like Anhui (average 39.3%), have a higher water consumption drag effect (1.352). (4) Our results indicate that the water drag effect is even greater than the drag effect of coal and land. Therefore, policies to increase urbanization should carefully consider the way that water constraints may limit growth. Likewise, our spatial model indicates that policy makers should work with neighboring provinces and construct an effective regional water cooperation mechanism.

The Yangtze River Basin is a resource axis represented by hydropower resources, bulk agricultural products, and mining resources. However, with rapid socio-economy development, the balance between water, energy, and food elements in the region has become more fragile. As the core element of the water-energy-food nexus, it is necessary to study water resources security and give effective pre-warning of possible water safety problems from the perspective of water-energy-food symbiosis. In this paper, we introduce the “symbiosis theory” to build a regional water-energy-food nexus symbiosis framework. Then, we establish a Lotka–Volterra symbiotic evolution model to calculate the symbiotic security index. Finally, we judge the water security state and pre-warning level and analyze the causes of water security problems by the inverse decoupling of the indicator-index. The results show that the spatial differentiation of water security in the Yangtze River Basin is obvious from the perspective of water-energy-food symbiosis. The state of water security in the middle and upper reaches of the Yangtze River Basin is better than that in the lower reaches. Specifically, the water resources security levels in the upstream hydropower energy enrichment regions are generally low. By contrast, the water systems of some downstream socio-economically developed provinces have certain risks. Therefore, each province needs to find out the key factors that hinder the healthy development of the water resources system based on combining the evolution mechanism and symbiotic state of water-energy-food so that water security can be managed in a targeted manner.

This paper develops a lexicographic optimization model to allocate agricultural and non-agricultural water footprints by using the land area as the influencing factor. An index known as the water-footprint-land density (WFLD) index is then put forward to assess the impact and equity of the resulting allocation scheme. Subsequently, the proposed model is applied to a case study allocating water resources for the 11 provinces and municipalities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB). The objective is to achieve equitable spatial allocation of water resources from a water footprint perspective. Based on the statistical data in 2013, this approach starts with a proper accounting for water footprints in the 11 YREB provinces. We then determined an optimal allocation of water footprints by using the proposed lexicographic optimization approach from a land area angle. Lastly, we analyzed how different types of land uses contribute to allocation equity and we discuss policy changes to implement the optimal allocation schemes in the YREB. Analytical results show that: (1) the optimized agricultural and non-agricultural water footprints decrease from the current levels for each province across the YREB, but this decrease shows a heterogeneous pattern; (2) the WFLD of 11 YREB provinces all decline after optimization with the largest decline in Shanghai and the smallest decline in Sichuan; and (3) the impact of agricultural land on the allocation of agricultural water footprints is mainly reflected in the land use structure of three land types including arable land, forest land, and grassland. The different land use structures in the upstream, midstream, and downstream regions lead to the spatial heterogeneity of the optimized agricultural water footprints in the three YREB segments; (4) In addition to the non-agricultural land area, different regional industrial structures are the main reason for the spatial heterogeneity of the optimized non-agricultural water footprints. Our water-footprint-based optimal water resources allocation scheme helps alleviate the water resources shortage pressure and achieve coordinated and balanced development in the YREB.

… Therefore, ecology should be considered as a core element into WEF-Nexus to form the water-energy-food-ecology (WEFE) system, which is in a dynamic evolution of mutual restriction, …

… Water resource spatial equilibrium (WRSE) is an important yardstick for guiding regional water … First, the performance of WRSE is quantified using the general deprivation index (GDI) …

Spatio-temporal evolution pattern and obstacle factors of water-energy-food nexus coupling coordination in the Yangtze river economic belt - ScienceDirect …

… Delta is one of the most urbanized and economically developed regions in China, but the regional water security problem is particularly prominent. The state approved a plan for …